Category Archives: nature|clouds

Waiting for Rain: El Nino and the 2015-16 Southern California Rainfall Year

Thunderstorm over the Santa Monica Mountains

Due in part to El Nino and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Southern California jump-started the 2015-16 rain season with above average rainfall in July and September.

Last year the NWS changed the WATER Year to October 1 – September 30, but the RAINFALL Year remains July 1 – June 30, as it’s been for decades.

Below is the monthly tabulation of rainfall for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) for the 2015-16 Rainfall Year, along with what is considered normal for the month.

Downtown Los Angeles Rainfall
Month Rainfall Normal
July 0.38 0.01
August T 0.04
September 2.39 0.24
October 0.45 0.66
November 0.01 1.04

So far this rainfall year Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 3.23 inches. Even with November as dry as it’s been we’re still more than an inch above normal for the rainfall year — about 1.46 inches above normal as of November 25.

Over the next couple of weeks the medium range models and other tools aren’t especially bullish on our chances for a good, soaking rainstorm in Southern California. Longer term guidance suggests an improving chance of precipitation as December progresses, and above average precipitation in January and February. We’ll see!

The title photo is from November 3. It shows a band of thunderstorms that moved southward across the San Fernando Valley and into the Santa Monica Mountains. The band produced cloud to ground lightning strikes and some heavy showers. Saddle Peak is in the distance on the left. The shower activity in the distance on the right is in the area of Kanan Rd. and the 101 Frwy.

Afternoon Clouds

The Chumash Trail, Simi Valley, California

Wow, there have been some spectacular afternoons recently! That’s the Chumash Trail yesterday.

The Chumash Trail is one of Simi Valley’s best trails. It’s tough and technical, and has great views. From bottom to top it’s about 2.6 miles with an elevation gain of about 1150 feet.

Running to Shangri-La

Cloud-shrouded Saddle Peak, Cold Canyon and Monte Nido from Calabasas Peak fire road in the Santa Monica Mountains.

Well, maybe not Shangri-La, but a Lost World kind of morning on the Calabasas Peak fire road segment of the Secret Trail.

Calabasas Peak fire road traverses the rock formations on the left, descending to Stunt Road. At Stunt the route continues up the Stunt High Trail to the Backbone Trail. Here you can do an optional out and back to Saddle Peak, shrouded in clouds in this photo, or turn west on the Backbone Trail and continue mostly downhill to Piuma Road near Malibu Canyon Road. Malibu Canyon is in the distance on the right in the photo.

The panorama is from a run earlier this month. Here’s a larger version.

Related post: Secret Trail Variations

Chumash Trail Clouds and Sun

Cumulus clouds from the Chumash Trail

Instability associated with an upper low resulted in some pop-up showers and thunderstorms today.



As I ran up the Chumash Trail on the east side of the Simi Valley I kept a close eye on a cell that developed near Ladyface in the Agoura Hills. That cell didn’t track as much to the east as I thought it might, but other cells were developing to the east and south of Rocky Peak and Santa Susana Pass area and at one point I heard the rumble of thunder.

As it worked out, I only had a few sprinkles on the run, but drove home in the rain!