Category Archives: nature

nature, nature|weather, weather, weather|el nino, weather|southern california

Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook

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Downtown Los Angeles (USC) happened to be under the right cloud yesterday, and recorded 0.02 inch of rain. There’s a continuing chance of showers in Southern California through the weekend. The area could use some rain. The last storm to produce more than a couple tenths of inch of rain at Downtown Los Angeles was back on February 24, 2008 — more than eight months ago.

Last year, California’s rain season might have been scripted by Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Lowland rain totals and the Sierra snowpack were well above normal through the end of February, and then the spigot was turned off. The storm track shifted north, and California had its driest March to May on record. (The March 29, 2008 post in Ed Berry’s Atmospheric Insights blog describes the events that may have led to and maintained this shift.)

Which rain season personality will surface this Winter? Earlier this year the equatorial Pacific tried to transition to El Nino, but the atmosphere didn’t cooperate. As measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the ENSO state has returned to the weak La Nina threshold. And as measured by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), an uncooperative atmosphere has continued to cycle through a La Nina base state.

This suggests a winter precipitation outlook with a La Nina flavor — similar to last year. This precipitation map, generated by the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page, shows the mean November-March precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. The average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range. Last season’s November-March rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles was about 12 inches.

Here’s the current Nov-Dec-Jan precipitation outlook issued October 16 by the Climate Prediction Center. The “EC” means an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan is similar. We’ll see what we get!

nature, trails, trails|smmc open space

Rocky Peak After the Sesnon Fire

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View southeast toward Porter Ranch from the summit of Rocky Peak following the Sesnon Fire.

My run to “Fossil Point” on Rocky Peak road, and side trip to Rocky Peak, was not the appalling experience I’ve come to expect when investigating a wildland area that has been overrun by a Southern California brush fire. Much of the chaparral along the fire road was not burned. Here are a few photos:

View southeast toward Porter Ranch from the summit of Rocky Peak (larger image).

View north toward Rocky Peak where the trail levels out, about 1.4 miles from the trailhead.

Burned area near viewpoint of Simi Valley about 2.3 miles from the trailhead.

View north from the summit of Rocky Peak. Rocky Peak fire road is on the far left, and the Johnson trail is on the right.

Unburned area along Rocky Peak fire road about 2.8 miles from the trailhead. Rocky Peak is the peak on the left.

False color image of slopes on the southwest side of Blind Canyon. The image has been modified to emphasize burned and unburned areas.

Some related posts: Chumash Trail – Sesnon & Simi Fires, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak

nature, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Chumash Trail – Sesnon & Simi Fires

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Scorched yerba santa along the Chumash Trail.

This weather worn sandstone boulder is a familiar landmark to those who do the Chumash Trail. It’s a little less than a mile up the trail, and is at the point where the trail turns east and continues its climb along a cobble strewn divide. The chaparral here and elsewhere along the Chumash Trail was burned last week by the western front of the Sesnon fire.

In the areas bordering the Chumash Trail, the Sesnon Fire appears to have been much less intense than the 2003 Simi Fire. In the case of the Simi Fire, it had been about 15 years since the area was burned, the fuel load was moderately high, and the fire intensity was such that nearly all plant materials were consumed down to the mineral earth.

Recovery from the Simi Fire has been primarily through the slow processes of basal-sprouting and seed germination. Just prior to the Sesnon Fire, common chaparral plants such as chamise, yerba santa, toyon and holly-leaved cherry had recovered about 70% to 90% of their 2003 size.

The recency of the Simi fire appears to have reduced the fuel load available to the Sesnon Fire. In many cases grasses and other annuals (many invasive) were consumed, but adjacent chaparral shrubs were only scorched. Many of these shrubs look like they will probably be able to recover through foliage replacement, rather than crown-sprouting. One exception might be laurel sumac, which appears to have been less fire tolerant.

Update 12/23/08. Only a small percentage of the scorched Yerba Santa are recovering through direct foliage replacement. Most of these plants are recovering through the process of crown sprouting.

In addition to reducing the fire danger, a little light rain would help jump start the recovery process. Computer weather models have been hinting at a change in the weather around November 1, and now seem to be converging on the possibility of a shower in Southern California around Halloween, followed by a front and some rain later in the weekend. That’s still a week away, so we’ll have to see!

Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of the perimeters of the Sesnon and Simi Fires, as well as GPS traces of some of the trails in the area.

nature, photography, photography|landscape

Downed Trees Near Mt. Abel

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Area of downed trees near the Cerro Noroeste road on the way to Mt. Abel.

Most of the trail between Mt. Pinos and Mt. Abel is in old growth pine and fir. One exception is this area of downed trees near the Cerro Noroeste road. The brushy plant with yellow flowers is rabbitbrush (probably Chrysothamnus viscidiflorus).

From today’s run to Mt. Abel and back from Mt. Pinos on the Vincent Tumamait Trail in Los Padres National Forest.

nature, nature|wildlife

King of the Hill

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Large buck with a doe in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (formerly Ahmanson Ranch).

The afternoon was hot, and the hill was not easy. I plodded up the rutted dirt road, watching my footfalls, and glancing upward from time to time. It was one of those days when hills grow long and steep, and sweat stings your eyes.

Part way up the grade, I caught a glimpse of two deer crossing the road. I didn’t get a good look, but thought it might be another buck and doe, like the pair I recently encountered in Topanga State Park. I stopped running, pulled out my camera, and walked slowly up to the point where a game trail left the road.

I was expecting the pair to have dissolved into the brush, but apparently they had not seen me. They were about halfway up a rounded hill, backlit by the sun, and partially hidden by dried grasses and mustard stalks. The buck’s head was down, and the doe’s ears fluttered nervously to and fro.

Suddenly the buck’s head shot up. As I watched, the animal’s silhouette grew impossibly tall. His thick neck extended from heavily muscled shoulders, projecting an iconic image of dominance that was amplified by his formidable, multi-tined antlers.

Awestruck, I snapped what photos I could, and then turned and began to slowly jog up the road. Periodically I would stop and turn, and see if the deer were still in sight.  As I crested the climb, I could just make out the pair on the top of the now distant knoll.