Category Archives: nature

Return to Hidden Pond

A trail runner on the Hidden Pond Trail in Pt. Mugu State Park.

Southern California can have inclement Winter weather. This January downtown Los Angeles experienced a streak with 8 days of measurable rain, and last year temperatures in the suburbs plunged to a frigid 20°F. Maybe this doesn’t compare to Seattle’s 2005-2006 rain streak of 27 days, or International Falls’ recent record low of 40° below zero, but it qualifies as rainy and cold none the less.

Today it was not rainy and cold. It was just about as pleasant as a day could be. Skies were blue, winds were light, and the temperature was in the mid-seventies. Starting at the Wendy Dr. trailhead on Potrero Rd., we enjoyed the perfect weather by doing a 14.5 mile variant of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon Course.

The photograph above is of the Hidden Pond Trail near Hidden Pond — recently restored by Winter rains.

Related posts: Boney Mountain Half Marathon, Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit, Boney Mountain – Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit

Winter Green

Greening hill at Ahmanson Ranch -- now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

It’s about time — all the rain in Southern California is finally turning our hills green! Last year the hills of East Las Virgenes Canyon were sun bleached and rain starved.

According to preliminary NWS data, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded measurable rain on each day from January 21 to January 28, 2008. Based on this NWS ranking for 1921-2006, this puts this eight day period in the top six of the station’s wettest streaks from 1921-2007.

So far this water year Downtown Los Angeles has recorded 11.73 inches of rain, which is 4.77 inches above normal. Last year on this date Los Angeles had recorded only 1.5 inches of rain. Even if Los Angeles were to receive no rain through the entire month of February (not likely), we would still go into the month of March ahead of normal.

The photograph is from a muddy run at Ahmanson Ranch — now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve.

Rainy Days on Rocky Peak Road

Stormy view of Simi Valley, California, from Rocky Peak Road.

Ran Rocky Peak road both days last weekend. Saturday’s outing was a 7.3 mile rainy day run out to the Chumash Trail junction and back. Sunday’s was a little longer, about 9.3 miles — past the Chumash Trail junction to the highpoint on the road sometimes referred to as “the fossils.”

The photograph of Simi Valley was taken on Sunday afternoon, just after turning around to head back. The wind was blowing in fitful gusts, and a gray wall of rain loomed to the west. It wasn’t raining yet, but the trailhead at Santa Susana Pass was about 50 minutes away, and there was a feeling things were going to get very wet, very soon.

Over the weekend the west coast was slammed by a series of storms that increased the water year rainfall total at Downtown Los Angeles to an inch above normal and the Sierra snow pack from 60% of normal to over 100%.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year indicates much of the area has received near normal to above normal precipitation.

Will Southern California rainfall remain near normal? The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar (issued Dec. 20), the ERSL/PSD Nov-Mar La Nina precipitation composite, and most other longer range forecast tools say no.

On the other hand… the base state of the atmospheric circulation remains more or less what it has been the past several months, so it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that our pattern of near normal rainfall might continue.

The current NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks project below normal for Southern California, but there are some hints that a system with a lower latitude track could affect the area near the end of the 14 day period. We’ll see!

Note: The ESRL/PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated yesterday to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post is drier in coastal Southern California than in the map originally published in the post Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook.