Category Archives: nature|clouds

Residual Showers

Got caught in some showers this afternoon on Rocky Peak, returning from a rambling trail run from the San Fernando Valley over into Simi Valley.

This was one of those “not sure where I’m going” runs that unfolded as it progressed. It started near Chatsworth Reservoir at Chatsworth Oaks Park, worked over to Santa Susana State Historic Park, then up the Old Stagecoach Road. At the top of the old Stagecoach Road, I picked up the Upper Stagecoach Trail and followed that to Santa Susana Pass and the 118 Frwy. From there it was a short distance down the west side of Santa Susana Pass Rd. to the Lower Stagecoach Trail, which took me to Corriganville.

Once down in Simi Valley there are four trails that ascend to Rocky Peak road, and my return route. From the shortest to the longest, they are the Wildlife Corridor trail, Hummingbird Trail, Chumash Trail and the Marrland/Las Llajas trail. Not sure how long it would take to get back to the SFV, I finally decided on the Chumash Trail.

Running up the Chumash Trail, the wind picked up, the clouds began to lower and thicken, and the temperature dropped. Minutes after turning right onto Rocky Peak road the showers began, and it wasn’t long before the sleeves came out of the pack.

The return trip, with a net elevation loss, went a little quicker than expected. Next time I’ll have to give the Las Llajas option a try. That would extend the run from about 17 miles, to something over 20. The approximate elevation gain/loss on the 17 mile version was a little under 3000 ft.

Related post: Old Santa Susana Stage Road

Sunset Shower

Sunset Shower

Some outstanding evening runs this week. Did a FiveFingers run out at Ahmanson on Tuesday, and as sometimes happens this time of year, didn’t make it back before dark. Was up on Lasky Mesa in the fading light, with endorphins at full flow. In a distant grove oaks I could hear a Great Horned Owl, and with each hoot-whoo it seemed the zeal of the day was turning to the tranquility of the night. The running was effortless and ethereal.

San Fernando Valley lights.This evening’s run was also superb. Over the course of the run, the skies had become increasingly gray and troubled, as a weak cold front approached the area. Climbing a long hill, the light was dank, and I had given up on the sun. But as I neared the crest of the hill, orange-red sunlight began to illuminate the clouds from below, highlighting a sunset shower. Large, cold rain drops began to patter around me, and I watched mesmerized, as the light, clouds, and rain played on the sky.

Southern California Rain and the 2009-2010 El Niño

Who would think a western Pacific typhoon could so directly affect California’s weather? But that’s what is happening. The moisture from typhoon Melor, which was over Japan just a few days ago, was captured by an extending and strengthening jet stream. This has resulted in an atmospheric river of moisture, stretching across the Pacific and into California.



This morning, Intellicast composite radar shows Northern and Central California already being hammered by the system. Southern California has seen a few showers, and several stations have already recorded significant rainfall. As of 9:00 a.m. the CNRFC Precipitation Map shows isolated 24 hr. rainfall amounts in the foothills and mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles County ranging from about 0.16 inch at Sandberg to 0.61 inch at West Big Pine.

The last day there was measurable rainfall at Downtown Los Angeles (USC) was on June 5, 2009, when 0.13 inch was recorded. Computer weather models forecast the best dynamics and highest rainfall totals will be in the northern two-thirds of the state, but in recent days have been trending wetter in the Los Angeles area, particularly in the mountains.

With so much moisture in the atmosphere, it takes very little lift to produce rain. Onshore winds, full of moisture, are lifted by foothills and mountains across the flow, and the result is rain — sometimes lots of it. In this case it appears the south to west facing mountains and foothills of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties may record much higher rainfall totals than the lowland areas.

In a decade characterized by unusual El Ninos, the ongoing El Niño of 2009-2010 is another strange one. El Niño signals continue mixed. The Aug-Sep Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), decreased from 0.978 to 0.754, however other El Niño signals appear to be rebounding. In the last two weeks low level equatorial westerly anomalies have increased significantly. The reduction in the strength of the trade winds, and a downwelling Kelvin wave resulting from a very strong westerly wind burst already appear to be increasing upper ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific. The 30 day moving Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been dropping, and should return to negative territory in a day or so.

Recurring equatorial westerly wind bursts and enhanced west-central Pacific convection has been slowly migrating eastward. The most recent round of enhanced convection was centered at about 160E. This is consistent with a developing El Niño, and may have contributed to the creation of the atmospheric river now affecting California, by helping to extend the Pacific jet stream following an East Asian mountain torque event.

However, total and relative AAM remain negative, and are lower than is generally the case during a developing El Niño. Of the weak to moderate El Ninos that have occurred Since 1959, only the 1977-78 and 1994-95 El Niños have had negative average July-September relative AAM values comparable to the current El Niño. Since 1959, only 4 of 15 El Niños have had negative average relative AAM values during the Southern California rain season of November to March. (Revised 12/14/09)

Moderate El Niños come in many flavors and have varying impacts. Under the guise of such El Niños Los Angeles experienced its second wettest water year on record in 2004-2005, when 37.25 inches of rain was recorded; then in 2006-2007 had its driest water year on record, when only 3.21″ was recorded. What flavor will the 2009-2010 El Niño be?

The photo of the tree and clouds is from yesterday’s run at Ahmanson Ranch.

Related post: How Does the El Nino of 2009-10 Compare to Other Warm ENSO Episodes Since 1950?

PCT from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle

View from near the summit of Mt. Baden-Powell.

Overnight the lows on the high peaks had dipped into the 30’s, and today the high temps would be 15-20 degrees below normal. If I could have ordered the perfect mix of temperature, clouds and sun for running in the Angeles high country, it would be difficult to top the weather this weekend and last.


Clouds and pines along south ridge of Mt. Baden-Powell in the San Gabriel Mountains.
Now that Hwy 2 was open between Islip Saddle and Vincent Gap, and we could do a car shuttle, Miklos, Krisztina and I had decided to run from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle on the PCT. Starting at Inspiration Point instead of Vincent Gap adds about 4.5 miles to the run, but the miles are relatively easy, and the stretch is a good warmup for the 2800 ft. climb up Mt. Baden-Powell.

Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of our approximately 18 mile route. We wandered down the south ridge of Mt. Baden-Powell, so this is a little longer than the usual route. The elevation gain was about 3300 ft., with an elevation loss of about 4000 ft. Continuing over Mt. Williamson to Eagle’s Roost would add about 4 miles and 1400 ft. of elevation gain.

Note: The speck in the summit photo is one of several violet-green swallows working lift and zooming along the top of southeast face.

Up & Down Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge

Hikers above the clouds on Mt. Baldy's South Ridge.
Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge.

One, two, ten…
Will the switchbacks ever end?

I can’t think of a tougher stretch of trail in the San Gabriel Mountains. From Mt. Baldy Village, the Bear Canyon/Old Mt. Baldy Trail climbs 5800′ in 6.7 miles to the 10,064′ summit of Mt. Baldy (Mt. San Antonio). The route is as rewarding as it is difficult, with inspiring views and interesting terrain.

I had hoped for some remnant clouds from Friday’s storms, but didn’t expect to be using my windshield wipers driving to the trailhead. The dark gray clouds piled against the mountains had a scuddy, stormy look, and I had a difficult time convincing myself that it was just a deep marine layer. But the sun was shining when I parked at the bottom of Bear Canyon Rd. and began to walk up the steep, cabin-lined street.

Clouds pushing up San Antonio Canyon and the southeastern slopes of Mt. Baldy.
Clouds pushing up San Antonio Canyon and the southeastern slopes of Mt. Baldy.

The last time I had been on the trail was July 2004, during the Baldy Peaks 50K. That day we started at the parking lot at Icehouse Canyon, and over the course of the race climbed Mt. Baldy twice. The first time from the Village, and the second time from Manker Flats. Today I wasn’t in a race, and would be completely satisfied to climb Mt. Baldy just once.

Running up a moderate section of trail below Bear Flat, I tried to figure out the last time I had run down the Bear Canyon Trail. Sometime before the Baldy Peaks race. I wasn’t sure how long it had been, but long enough to forget how grueling steep downhill can be.

My thoughts are interrupted by a pair of hikers coming down the trail. I ask how they’re doing, and am surprised to hear, “not so good.” They look disappointed and tired, and anxious to get down to the car. I wonder if one of them is ill, or if they just underestimated the difficulty of the trail.

A half-mile later I’m crossing the creek at Bear Flat (~5500′). This is where the fun begins. Here the trail switchbacks up a steep east-southeast facing chaparral slope to Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge, gaining about 1500′ in one mile. On a warm day it can be hellish. On a cool day it isn’t easy. Today it is cool. The cloud layer has continued to crawl up the mountain, and it envelops me as I start up the switchbacks.

A little more than a year ago, these slopes were burned in the 2008 Bighorn Fire. I had expected to see black, burned and barren chaparral in the initial stage of recovery, but instead there is substantial growth, comparable to 2-3 years of recovery in chaparral at a lower elevation.

Video snapshot from Mt. Baldy's South Ridge.
Click for video snapshot from Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge.

At an elevation of about 7000′, I climb out of the clouds and into the sun. What a day! Benign clouds lap at the mountainside, enhancing already dramatic views. Between 7000′ and 9000′, I encounter several hikers and briefly chat with one veteran hiker, who tells me this is his friend’s intro to hiking! It is a busy day for this trail, and I’m guessing I’ll see more hikers when I descend.

Above 9000′ the open forest of Jeffrey, Sugar and Lodgepole pine becomes more sparse and stunted. The route feels more alpine and climbs onto the rocky crest of an exposed ridge (HD Video Snapshot). A little higher, a large patch of snow accentuates the “you’re getting near tree line” feeling.

Hiker leaving the summit of Mt. Baldy, and starting the descent of the Ski Hut trail.
Hiker leaving the summit of Mt. Baldy, and starting the descent of the Ski Hut trail.

Approaching Baldy’s summit, I’m surprised to see a wispy cloud had also ascended the peak and is waiting for me to catch up. On top there seems to be a mix of young and old, veterans and first-timers, excitement and exhaustion. After a few minutes on the summit, I run over to West Baldy. Then it is gravity’s turn, and I take the first steps down the slope.

The descent is just as extraordinary as the ascent, with far-reaching mountain views over a sea of clouds. On an exposed section of the ridge at about the 8500′ I happen on a Sugar pine with a spiral scar from a lightning strike. Such trees are disturbingly common. There is a Jeffrey pine at about the same elevation on Mt. Baldy’s North Backbone Trail with a similar lightning scar.

Ferns at Bear Flat
Ferns at Bear Flat

At around 7500′, I descend into the clouds. The change from blue to gray does not carry with it the usual malaise. Wisps of warm cloud thread softly through the pines and a solitary deer walks silently through the dream-like scene (Video snapshot).

One, two, ten… Will the switchbacks ever end? Finally, through the trees I see the brilliant green of the ferns at Bear Flat. Running becomes easier. I pick up the pace, and in a few minutes turn onto the asphalt of Bear Canyon road.

Here is an interactive, 3D terrain view of a GPS trace of my route on the Mt. Baldy’s  South Ridge on the Bear Canyon/Old Mt. Baldy Trail. The map can be zoomed, tilted, rotated, and panned using the navigation control on the right. Track and placename locations are approximate and subject to errors. Snow, ice, poor weather, and other conditions may make this route unsuitable for this activity.

Some related posts: Mt. Baldy Runner, Lightning Tree