Category Archives: photography|landscape

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Southern California 2007-2008 Winter Precipitation Outlook

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New grass sprouting amid oaks at Sage Ranch on October 1, 2007

Updated January 10, 2008. The ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in this post has been updated.

Grasses sprouting as a result of our record setting September rainstorm have brushed our sun parched hills, fields, and woodlands with pleasing hints of green. Whether these areas will remain green depends on how much rain we receive this Fall and Winter.

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s Weekly ENSO Update, issued October 1, La Niña conditions are present across the tropical Pacific and are likely to persist through early 2008. As a result, several longer range U.S. precipitation outlooks are similar to this Nov-Dec-Jan Precipitation Outlook, issued September 20 by the CPC.

The precipitation pattern projected for the western U.S. is typical of a La Niña, with an increased chance of higher than normal precipitation in the Pacific northwest and an increased chance of lower than normal precipitation in the southwest.

The September 20 CPC outlook indicates an “equal chance” of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation in the Los Angeles area. However, the La Niña has strengthened recently, so the next precipitation outlook may reflect a more pessimistic projection of Los Angeles area rainfall.

As mentioned above, the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. This updated precipitation map shows the mean Nov-Mar precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. Note that the average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range, rather than the  10-15 inch range previously indicated in the ESRL-PSD graphic.

The two driest water years recorded in Los Angeles since 1877 have occurred in the last seven years. During the most recent, from Jul 2006 to June 2007, downtown Los Angeles (USC) measured only 3.21 inches of rain. In that context 10-15 inches sounds quite wet! We’ll see.

The photograph of new grass sprouting amid oaks is from a run at Sage Ranch on October 1, 2007.

nature, nature|weather, photography, photography|landscape, photography|panoramic, running, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

September Storm

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Rocky Peak road 

Los Angeles sometimes gets rain in September, but usually it is the result of tropical moisture from a dissipating hurricane, or perhaps the passage of the tail end of a weakening front. It is rare to see a low as cold, deep and energetic as the upper level low that deluged many areas of Los Angeles county Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Thunderstorms raked the San Fernando Valley Friday night, and several locations in and around the Valley recorded more than an inch of rain over the course of the storm. Los Angeles set a new rainfall record on Saturday, recording 0.40 inch of rain, and rainfall records were broken across the area.

In Southern California the first rain of the season often doesn’t occur until October or November and is always savored. Especially this year, when Los Angeles has recorded only 3.21 inches of rain in the last 15 or 16 months, and a developing La Nina threatens to put the kibosh on Winter rain.

I celebrated the rain by doing an out and back run to “Fossil Point” on Rocky Peak fire road. Based on the size of the mud puddles on the dirt road, this unseasonable storm appeared to be wetter than any in last year’s record dry rain season. Here’s a panorama of the view northwest from the fire road to Oak Ridge, the Santa Susana Mountains and beyond.

Some related posts: San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak, Rainy Morning on Rocky Peak Road.

photography, photography|landscape

Mountains and Valleys

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View east from the Mishe Mokwa trail over Ladyface and the San Fernando Valley to the San Gabriel Mountains.

View east from the Mishe Mokwa trail over Ladyface and the San Fernando Valley to the San Gabriel Mountains.

The peaks of the Mt. Wilson area are those in the distance, rising above the marine layer. Mt. Baldy, about 75 miles distant, is the high peak, just left of the centerline of the photograph, in the haze beyond the Mt. Wilson ridgeline.

Related post: Balance Rock, Mt. Wilson Area Peaks From Twin Peaks

photography, photography|landscape, running, trails, trails|smmc open space

Simi Peak Out & Back

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Sandstone Peak and Boney Mountain from Simi Peak.
Sandstone Peak and Boney Mountain from Simi Peak

I hadn’t done this course in midsummer, but a long run close to home, and an early morning ascent of Simi Peak sounded like a nice change of pace. A dawn start from El Scorpion Park put me on the peak and back to the car before temps got out of hand.

On the way out to Simi Peak I usually run up Las Virgenes Canyon and then follow a single track popular with mountain-bikers to Shepherds’ Flat. From here the Sheep Corral Trail leads west to the Palo Comado Canyon fire road, which can be followed up to China Flat. On the way back, from Shepherds’ Flat I run down the Cheeseboro Canyon trail to a connector that can be followed east back to Las Virgenes Canyon. Done this way, and tacking on a short scenic tour of China Flat, the route works out to be about 22.5 miles, with an elevation gain and loss of about 2200 ft. Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of a GPS trace of the run.

There is an extensive network of trails in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve (trail map) and Cheeseboro/Palo Comado Canyons (trail map) , and many routes to Simi Peak are possible. El Scorpion Park is the most distant trailhead from Simi Peak. Starting at the Victory trailhead will decrease the round-trip mileage by about 2.5 miles, and from the Las Virgenes trailhead by about 6 miles. Simi Peak can also be accessed from the Cheeseboro Canyon, Lindero Canyon, Lang Ranch, and Long Canyon trailheads.

nature, nature|trees, photography, photography|landscape, photography|trail running, running, trails, trails|san gabriels

Wally Waldron Limber Pine

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A grizzled guardian of the San Gabriel Mountains, the Wally Waldron Tree stands defiantly astride an airy, rock strewn ridge, just below the summit of 9399 ft. Mt. Baden-Powell.

A grizzled guardian of the San Gabriel Mountains, the Wally Waldron Tree stands defiantly astride an airy, rock strewn ridge, just below the summit of 9399 ft. Mt. Baden-Powell.

Perched on the brink of the mountain’s precipitous southeast face, the weather-sculpted Limber Pine is at an elevation and in an environment similar to the 4000+ yr. old White Mountain Bristlecone Pines. Burnished and hardened, the tree’s huge, gnarled roots anchor it firmly to the mountain, helping it to resist the whims of weather and time. The tree is estimated to be 1500 years old.

We had stopped to visit the tree part way through an approximately 23.5 mile loop from Islip Saddle. Our route had descended to South Fork Campground (4560′), before climbing back up to Vincent Gap and Mt. Baden-Powell. In a few minutes we would continue to Baden-Powell’s summit, and from there follow the PCT along the crest back to Islip Saddle. Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of a GPS trace of the loop.

Water Notes: The little stream on the Manzanita Trail about 1.5 miles from Vincent Gap was still running. The flow from Little Jimmy Spring was lower than normal, but still very reasonable. We did not detour to Lamil Spring.

Related posts: Vincent Gap – Little Jimmy Spring Out & Back, Complications, Heat Wave