Or should that be ramping UP for Mt. Disappointment? Anyway, started tapering for the Mt. Disappointment run next Saturday. Did the 13 mile Cheeseboro Canyon keyhole loop from the Victory Trailhead of Ahmanson Ranch yesterday, and then stretched the legs at Sage Ranch today. Both mornings were cool, with low clouds and fog — very pleasant!
Here’s hoping for “not too hot” weather for the race. At the moment, the GFS and ECMWF weather models show a weak upper level trough moving through California in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Such a scenario should increase the chances of “seasonable” temps for the race — which would still be quite warm, but maybe not crazy hot.
Update Friday Morning 8/07/09. Broad upper level trough over California this morning is keeping things cool. Yesterday the high recorded at Mt. Wilson was 70, and the low overnight was 48! Southern part of the trough is forecast to hang back over Southern California through Saturday, which could result in temps a little BELOW normal for the Mt. Disappointment race. We’ll see!
Since nearly all my weekday runs are in the afternoon, on Summer weekends I usually like to escape the heat and do a run in the mountains — the higher, the better. But today even the mountains were going to be hot. Hot enough that the National Weather Service had issued an Excessive Heat Warning for a combination of heat and humidity that would “create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely.”
It would be cooler at the higher elevations of the Sierra, but there was good chance of thunderstorms developing along the crest of the Sierra, as well as most of the higher mountains of Southern California. Considering the options, I finally decided to do an early morning run in Pt. Mugu State Park. If I was going to run in the heat, it might as well be a scenic run close to home. Maybe the weather in the mountains would be better next weekend.
There are many excellent courses at Pt. Mugu State Park. The course I was doing today is a “backward” variant of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon Course — up the Old Boney Trail, down to the Danielson Multi-use area, up Ranch Center fire road to the Hidden Pond Trail, and then back on the Upper Sycamore Trail. Water is normally available at Danielson Multi-use area and at the start of the Upper Sycamore Trail.
I should have started the run at dawn, but instead ambled along a section of the Satwiwa Loop trail at sunrise. The light was muted and golden, stretching my shadow well out on the trail ahead. Cool trickles of air filled each dip and gully and I wondered how long the temperate conditions would last. Ironically, the last time I had done this course it had been blustery and cold, and there had been snow on the mountains above Ventura. Not today…
It was warm running up the east facing section of the Old Boney Trail, but not yet hot. The crags to the west of the Danielson cabin site, gleamed in the morning sun, and for a brief instant I debated climbing the ridge. The impulse passed, and once over the shoulder of Boney Mountain, I thoroughly enjoyed the (mostly) downhill running through the Boney Mountain Wilderness to the Blue Canyon Trail junction. Cool air draining from the shaded slopes of Boney Mountain kept temps reasonable in the canyon, and the running was good all the way to the Danielson Multi-use area.
At the Multi-use area there is a choice. The coolest and most direct route to the Upper Sycamore Trail is up shaded (and paved) Sycamore Canyon road. But with the Mt Disappointment race looming, I wanted to get in more time and elevation gain, so opted for the longer, more exposed route up the Ranch Center fire road, and then along the ridge on the Hidden Pond Trail. Yes it was hot, and the humidity was up a bit, but it was still scenic and enjoyable in a “I’m not going to let the heat get to me” kind of way. And I knew a water faucet was waiting for me at the point where the Hidden Pond Trail rejoins Sycamore Canyon road, and the Upper Sycamore Trail continues eastward.
Maybe it was the heat, or maybe the coyote had learned to scavenge food from hikers — whatever the case the coyote ahead of me on the Upper Sycamore trail didn’t seem to be in any particular hurry to get off the trail. Coyotes are an odd sort, very intelligent and adaptable, but in my experience not normally any kind of threat.
Usually they will scurry away from a runner. This coyote wasn’t scurrying anywhere. I picked up the pace and clapped my hands, and eventually the animal grudgingly took cover to the side of the trail. But, as it turns out, only about 4 feet off the trail. This was odd, brazen behavior, and I kept a wary eye as I passed.
The final challenge of the morning was the hot climb up to Satwiwa on the Danielson road from the end of the Upper Sycamore Trail. The hill isn’t long or particularly steep, but it faces directly into the sun. With the heat of the day building, it wasn’t easy.
Overall it was an excellent run that would have been even better with an earlier start. Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of the approximately 14.5 mile route.
Last year on this date, Southern California was in the middle of a heatwave. On June 20, 2008, Los Angeles Pierce College in Woodland Hills reached a record-setting high of 111°F, and on June 21 the temp reached 108°F!
Not so this June! So far this month, Downtown Los Angeles has not had a day when the average temperature was above normal. And it’s not only the low elevation stations that have been cool. Several times this month the overnight low at the Big Pines RAWS, near Wrightwood in the San Gabriel Mountains, has dropped into the thirties, and daytime temps have averaged more than 10 degrees below normal.
This translates to great running weather in Southern California, and near perfect weather for trail running in the San Gabriel Mountains. Today, did the Three Points – Buckhorn loop, along with a short detour up to the summit of Waterman Mountain. The route worked out to about 23 miles with a reality-checked elevation gain/loss of about 3800′. Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of the run.
The title photo is of Dave Burke, cruising down a nice section of the PCT between Cloudburst Summit and Cooper Canyon.
Overnight the lows on the high peaks had dipped into the 30’s, and today the high temps would be 15-20 degrees below normal. If I could have ordered the perfect mix of temperature, clouds and sun for running in the Angeles high country, it would be difficult to top the weather this weekend and last.
Now that Hwy 2 was open between Islip Saddle and Vincent Gap, and we could do a car shuttle, Miklos, Krisztina and I had decided to run from Inspiration Point to Islip Saddle on the PCT. Starting at Inspiration Point instead of Vincent Gap adds about 4.5 miles to the run, but the miles are relatively easy, and the stretch is a good warmup for the 2800 ft. climb up Mt. Baden-Powell.
Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of our approximately 18 mile route. We wandered down the south ridge of Mt. Baden-Powell, so this is a little longer than the usual route. The elevation gain was about 3300 ft., with an elevation loss of about 4000 ft. Continuing over Mt. Williamson to Eagle’s Roost would add about 4 miles and 1400 ft. of elevation gain.
Note: The speck in the summit photo is one of several violet-green swallows working lift and zooming along the top of southeast face.
I can’t think of a tougher stretch of trail in the San Gabriel Mountains. From Mt. Baldy Village, the Bear Canyon/Old Mt. Baldy Trail climbs 5800′ in 6.7 miles to the 10,064′ summit of Mt. Baldy (Mt. San Antonio). The route is as rewarding as it is difficult, with inspiring views and interesting terrain.
I had hoped for some remnant clouds from Friday’s storms, but didn’t expect to be using my windshield wipers driving to the trailhead. The dark gray clouds piled against the mountains had a scuddy, stormy look, and I had a difficult time convincing myself that it was just a deep marine layer. But the sun was shining when I parked at the bottom of Bear Canyon Rd. and began to walk up the steep, cabin-lined street.
Clouds pushing up San Antonio Canyon and the southeastern slopes of Mt. Baldy.
The last time I had been on the trail was July 2004, during the Baldy Peaks 50K. That day we started at the parking lot at Icehouse Canyon, and over the course of the race climbed Mt. Baldy twice. The first time from the Village, and the second time from Manker Flats. Today I wasn’t in a race, and would be completely satisfied to climb Mt. Baldy just once.
Running up a moderate section of trail below Bear Flat, I tried to figure out the last time I had run down the Bear Canyon Trail. Sometime before the Baldy Peaks race. I wasn’t sure how long it had been, but long enough to forget how grueling steep downhill can be.
My thoughts are interrupted by a pair of hikers coming down the trail. I ask how they’re doing, and am surprised to hear, “not so good.” They look disappointed and tired, and anxious to get down to the car. I wonder if one of them is ill, or if they just underestimated the difficulty of the trail.
A half-mile later I’m crossing the creek at Bear Flat (~5500′). This is where the fun begins. Here the trail switchbacks up a steep east-southeast facing chaparral slope to Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge, gaining about 1500′ in one mile. On a warm day it can be hellish. On a cool day it isn’t easy. Today it is cool. The cloud layer has continued to crawl up the mountain, and it envelops me as I start up the switchbacks.
A little more than a year ago, these slopes were burned in the 2008 Bighorn Fire. I had expected to see black, burned and barren chaparral in the initial stage of recovery, but instead there is substantial growth, comparable to 2-3 years of recovery in chaparral at a lower elevation.
Click for video snapshot from Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge.
At an elevation of about 7000′, I climb out of the clouds and into the sun. What a day! Benign clouds lap at the mountainside, enhancing already dramatic views. Between 7000′ and 9000′, I encounter several hikers and briefly chat with one veteran hiker, who tells me this is his friend’s intro to hiking! It is a busy day for this trail, and I’m guessing I’ll see more hikers when I descend.
Above 9000′ the open forest of Jeffrey, Sugar and Lodgepole pine becomes more sparse and stunted. The route feels more alpine and climbs onto the rocky crest of an exposed ridge (HD Video Snapshot). A little higher, a large patch of snow accentuates the “you’re getting near tree line” feeling.
Hiker leaving the summit of Mt. Baldy, and starting the descent of the Ski Hut trail.
Approaching Baldy’s summit, I’m surprised to see a wispy cloud had also ascended the peak and is waiting for me to catch up. On top there seems to be a mix of young and old, veterans and first-timers, excitement and exhaustion. After a few minutes on the summit, I run over to West Baldy. Then it is gravity’s turn, and I take the first steps down the slope.
The descent is just as extraordinary as the ascent, with far-reaching mountain views over a sea of clouds. On an exposed section of the ridge at about the 8500′ I happen on a Sugar pine with a spiral scar from a lightning strike. Such trees are disturbingly common. There is a Jeffrey pine at about the same elevation on Mt. Baldy’s North Backbone Trail with a similar lightning scar.
One, two, ten… Will the switchbacks ever end? Finally, through the trees I see the brilliant green of the ferns at Bear Flat. Running becomes easier. I pick up the pace, and in a few minutes turn onto the asphalt of Bear Canyon road.
Here is an interactive, 3D terrain view of a GPS trace of my route on the Mt. Baldy’s South Ridge on the Bear Canyon/Old Mt. Baldy Trail. The map can be zoomed, tilted, rotated, and panned using the navigation control on the right. Track and placename locations are approximate and subject to errors. Snow, ice, poor weather, and other conditions may make this route unsuitable for this activity.
Off to the south, I heard the distant rumble of thunder. The developing line of thunderstorms had swept through the West Valley about an hour before I began my run at Ahmanson Ranch.
Unusual weather for June. Not so much that there were thunderstorms, but that the thunderstorms were in part the result of an unseasonably strong jet embedded in the base of an upper level low.
It’s a bit of a stretch, but an argument could be made that these storms were a calling card of an increasingly energetic atmosphere, and a developing El Niño.
Several factors point to an increased probability of El Niño conditions developing over the next few months. Among them, Equatorial Pacific SSTs have increased, and the subsurface heat content is the highest it’s been since the El Niño of 2006-07.
But as the short-lived 2006-07 El Niño event demonstrates, an El Niño is more than just warm Pacific equatorial SSTs. Through complex forcing and feedback mechanisms, the atmosphere and oceans have to cooperate on a global scale. Generally speaking the atmosphere speeds up when there is an El Niño, and slows down during a La Nina.
And it looks like the atmosphere may be speeding up. Orbits of the Global Wind Oscillation, a measure of atmospheric momentum, have been shifting upward, in the direction of more energetic values usually associated with an El Niño.
But an El Niño is not a done deal. The climate system is just leaning in that direction. As climate scientist Klaus Wolter has pointed out, in a similar situation in 1973-1975, the climate fell back into a La Niña for another year. At this point it appears we may be diverging from that analog case. We’ll see!
Update June 6, 2009. The April-May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value, released today, has increased by 0.54 to +0.34. As discussed by MEI originator, Klaus Wolter, the 3-month rise of the MEI since January-February is the 4th highest on record for this time of year, exceeded only by the strong Niño of 1997. According to Dr. Wolter, if next month’s MEI rank is at least the same as this month (37th), “it would be unprecedented for it to drop below that high-neutral ENSO-phase range by the end of 2009, virtually excluding a return to La Niña, based on the MEI record since 1950.”
