Were Changes in a Pool on Upper Las Virgenes Creek a Precursor to the September 2024 Malibu Earthquake?

Much-diminished pool on Las Virgenes Creek on September 11, 2024, the day before the 4.7 Malibu earthquake.
Much-diminished pool on Las Virgenes Creek on September 11, 2024, the day before the 4.7 Malibu earthquake.

It was very odd. After persisting in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon for 18 months, the pool on Las Virgenes Creek had unexpectedly receded.

When I’d run past the pool on September 6, it had been full. Just five days later — the day before the 4.7 Malibu earthquake — it had shrunk to a small puddle.

Anyone that hikes, runs, or rides in Upper Las Virgenes Canyon would be familiar with the pool — it’s where the fire road crosses the creek, about a quarter-mile south (downstream) of the pipeline monitoring station and 0.7 mile from the Las Virgenes Trailhead. A use trail has evolved to the east of the road to bypass the pool.

Pool on Las Virgenes Creek on September 17, 2024, five days after 4.7 Malibu earthquake.
Pool on Las Virgenes Creek five days after 4.7 Malibu earthquake.

The earthquake occurred on September 12, 2024, at 07:28:21 PDT. That afternoon I ran out to Upper Las Virgenes Canyon and checked the pool again. It was already refilling. Five days later it was nearly back to its normal level.

Was the change in the pool level a precursor to the Malibu earthquake?

The pool is about 11 miles from the earthquake’s epicenter. Water level changes in wells miles from an event have preceded earthquakes similar in size to the Malibu quake. It’s something to wonder about.

Facing a Future of Runaway Wildfires in Southern California

A group of Jeffrey pines on Mt. Waterman killed by the Bobcat Fire with smoke from the Bridge Fire in the distance.

It was a sobering sight. I had stopped at a point on Mt. Waterman burned by the Station Fire in 2009 and the Bobcat Fire in 2020.

To the east, smoke from the Bridge Fire filled the canyons and clung to the ridges between Mt. Baldy and the East Fork San Gabriel River. A group of skeletal Jeffrey pines, once full and green, stood starkly in the foreground.

Another devastating fire had stormed through the San Gabriel Mountains, destroying homes and ravaging the forest and all that lives within. Not far away, the Line and Airport Fires were also burning, the extent of the three fires totaling over 117,500 acres.

Conventional methods of land and fire management usually do not prevent the rapid spread of a fire when forest or weather conditions are extreme — and extreme conditions are now the norm.

Incremental changes to long-established policies will not be enough to prevent runaway wildfires. Novel approaches must be considered, researched and evaluated. New tools and technology, including AI, need to be more widely applied. The hesitancy to spend money proactively must be overcome.

Today, it is difficult to do a hike or run of more than a few miles in the foothills or mountains of Southern California without passing through an area that has been burned in the past 25 years. In 50, 100, or 200 years what will the outdoor experience be? Will conifers only exist in widely scattered stands? Will the ecology be forever compromised?

Every effort must be made to mitigate the impacts of runaway wildfires and preserve the nature and ecology of our open space areas and wildlands.

Some related posts:
Bridge Fire Perimeter and Some Area Trails
After the Bobcat and Station Fires: Three Points Loop Around Mt. Waterman
After the Station Fire: Pine Seedling Along the Mt. Waterman Trail
Waterman Mountain: Fallen Trees, Forest and Ferns
After the Station Fire: Three Points – Mt. Waterman Loop

Bridge Fire Perimeter and Some Area Trails

2024 Bridge Fire Perimeter and some trails in the area

Updated 09/23/24 to perimeter with poly_DateCurrent of Mon, 23 Sep 2024 02:44:56 GMT.

For official information see the Bridge Fire incident page on Inciweb, the Angeles National Forest updates on Facebook, and the Angeles National Forest website.

The perimeters are from the Wildland Fire Interagency Geospatial Services (WFIGS) Group and National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) website. The timestamp for the perimeter is the poly_DateCurrent specified with the perimeter data.

GPS tracks of some trails in the area are also shown. Placename and trail locations are approximate and may be incorrect.

Following are several 3D terrain views of the Bridge Fire perimeter from various perspectives:

Overview of the Bridge Fire perimeter

View of the Bridge Fire perimeter zoomed in on the Wrightwood area.

View of the Bridge Fire perimeter zoomed in on the Mt. Baldy area.

View of the Bridge Fire perimeter zoomed in on the Mt. Baden-Powell area.

The initial view can be changed using the control on the upper right side of the screen, the CTRL key and your mouse, or touch gestures.

Late Start on the Bulldog Loop

Saddle Peak from the Mesa Peak Mtwy on the Bulldog Loop.
Saddle Peak from the Mesa Peak Mtwy on the Bulldog Loop.

It was near dawn, and I was driving west on the 101 Freeway, going to the Wendy Drive Trailhead to do a run in Pt. Mugu State Park.

I’d just passed Moorpark Road and changed lanes to exit at Lynn Road. Suddenly, the whole car started to shake. The vibration was so intense it took a moment to realize I had a flat tire. [Expletive deleted!] I pulled onto the shoulder of the freeway and cursed again.

After decades without a flat, I had managed to have two in just three weeks. Both were early on Sunday morning and on the way to do a run. The first happened on Angeles Forest Highway while driving to Islip Saddle. That time, I was able to pull into a large turnout and change the tire. Traffic wasn’t an issue. Not so on the Ventura Freeway. The flat was on the driver’s side, and the shoulder was narrow. I called for service.

Apparently, there aren’t many roadside service vehicles out and about before sunrise on a Sunday. An hour and a half later, I was finally headed back to the San Fernando Valley.

I was first in line when Tires Buy Mark opened at 10:00. While waiting for the tire to be patched, I debated a Plan B for a run. Eventually, I decided to do an extended version of the Bulldog Loop. The run would be in the middle of the day, which wasn’t ideal, but it was nearby.  It would be an excellent 16-mile run, even if a little on the toasty side.

At 11:30, I started up the short hill at the beginning of the Cistern Trail. Even though it wasn’t an unusually hot day, the temperature in the sun was already in the 90s, and there wasn’t a cloud in the sky.

It was slightly cooler on the trail along Malibu Creek. There was still water pooled in the creek, and I was glad the seasonal footbridge was in place. A pool near the M*A*S*H site was surprisingly large.

A section of Bulldog Mtwy low on the climb.
A section of Bulldog Mtwy low on the climb.

I expected it to be warm on the Bulldog climb, and it was. I just pretended I was on the second loop of the Bulldog 50K and continued chugging up the hill. Speaking of which… The Bulldog Ultra was the previous weekend, and a new course record was set in the 50K. Anthony Fagundes did the 29 mile course in the remarkable time of 3:30:03. This works out to an AVERAGE pace of 7:15 min/mile! His race analysis on Strava lists a split on the downhill on Mesa Peak Mtwy fire road at 5:25 min/mile. I don’t have the exact time, but on the first loop it looks like he did the Bulldog climb — from Crags Rd. to Castro Crest Mtwy — in about 30 minutes.

It took me a little longer than that to get up Bulldog. There was a noticeable drop in temperature as I worked up to the top of the long climb. On Castro Crest and Mesa Peak fire roads, the temperature was a relatively comfortable 80-something. The breeze from the ocean was intermittent, but when present, felt like air conditioning.

There weren’t many wildflowers. One interesting exception was Santa Susana tarweed (Deinandra minthornii). It was blooming on the sandstone rocks where the Backbone Trail goes through a prominent rock gateway, east of the Corral Canyon Trailhead.

Santa Susana tarweed along the Backbone Trail, east of the Corral Canyon Trailhead.
Santa Susana tarweed along the Backbone Trail, east of the Corral Canyon Trailhead.

The plant has a California Rare Plant Rank of 1B.2, which means it is considered “rare, threatened, or endangered in California and elsewhere…” The plant normally blooms after Winter rains. In the ANF technical notes** accompanying its description on SMMflowers.org, B. A. Prigge & A. C. Gibson describe how the plant may produce out-of-season flowers in the Summer, following a wet rain season with late Spring precipitation.

Here is an interactive, high-resolution, 3D terrain view of a variation of the Bulldog Loop that starts at the Cistern Trail. The notations assume the route is being done counterclockwise. An optional out-and-back on the Forest Trail is shown as a red track. Two routes are shown for crossing Malibu Creek in Tapia Park. One route uses a trail that rock-hops across the creek, and the other the bridge on Malibu Canyon Road, near the Piuma Road junction.

The option on Malibu Canyon Road requires crossing the highway twice. There is a pedestrian walkway on the east side of the bridge and a traffic light and crosswalk at Piuma Road. The trail that crosses the creek directly can be a little tricky to find because of other use trails in the area. When there is heavy rain, the flow may be too high to cross the creek safely.

Today, I decided to use the highway. There was a never-ending line of cars headed to and from the beach. It probably would have been faster — and safer — to use the trail. After crossing the creek on the highway bridge, and before doing the climb on the Tapia Spur Trail, I topped off my water at a faucet in the Tapia Day Use Area. Later, I also grabbed a quick drink at the water faucet next to the restrooms at the main Malibu Creek State Park parking lot.

From the main parking lot, it’s about 1.4 miles along Crags Road to the bottom of the Lookout Trail, and from there another three-quarters of a mile back to the Cistern Trailhead on Mulholland Highway.

Some related posts:
A Displaced Bridge, Exceptional Backbone Trail Views, and a Card Table Along the Bulldog Loop
Forest Run
Best Trailhead to Start the Bulldog Loop?
Bulldog Loop Plus the Phantom Loop

**A Naturalist’s Flora of the Santa Monica Mountains and Simi Hills, California by Barry A. Prigge and Arthur C. Gibson

Back to Baden-Powell – August 2024

Thumbnails of a few photos from the 16-mile out-and-back trail run to Mt. Baden-Powell from the Islip Saddle Trailhead.Above are thumbnails of a few photos from the 16-mile out-and-back trail run to Mt. Baden-Powell from the Islip Saddle Trailhead. Click on an image for a larger photo and more information.

I plucked a currant from the bush and popped it into my mouth. In some years, the red berries are little more than a desiccated bit of pulp. This year’s crop was plump, flavorful, and almost could be described as juicy.

Almost two months had passed since I’d been on the PCT between Islip Saddle and Mt. Baden-Powell. Not a lot changed in the routine of the city in those seven weeks. The street sweeper still came by on Wednesday mornings, the trash was picked up each Friday, and the neighborhood looked pretty much the same as it did at the end of June.

But a lot happens along a mountain trail in seven weeks. The Poodle-dog bush was now wilted and brown. Currants and elderberries had ripened. Rabbitbrush, the messenger of Fall, was blooming, its yellow replacing the pastel purple of Grinnell’s beardtongue. Chinquapin bushes were covered in spiny, green nut burs. Pendulous, resin-coated cones hung from the ends of the long limbs of the sugar pines.

Angeles Crest Highway was still closed between Islip Saddle and Vincent Gap. Gone was the noise of vehicles on the road below, replaced by the sound of the wind in the trees and the occasional outburst of a Clark’s nutcracker.

At the saddle near Mt. Hawkins, I stopped to photograph the stump of the Mt. Hawkins lightning tree. Perhaps weakened by one or more lightning strikes, this Jeffrey pine lost its crown during the Winter of 2019-2020. Now without bark, it’s easy to see that lightning followed the spiral grain of the tree. This tree has a right-hand spiral grain.  When viewed from above, it is twisted counterclockwise.

Once again, the visibility from the summit of Mt. Baden-Powell was excellent. San Gorgonio (57 miles) and San Jacinto (72 miles) could be seen far to the east.

It was windy and cool at higher elevation. The National Weather Service’s Wind Chill Temperature formula doesn’t apply to temperatures over 50°F, but with bare arms and legs, it can be surprisingly chilly when there is a strong wind and the temperature is in the 60s. Had I not been pushing the pace, I would have needed to pull the sleeves and shell from my pack.

Here is an interactive, high resolution, 3D terrain view of the out and back from Islip Saddle to Mt. Baden-Powell. An alternative start at the Windy Gap Trailhead in the Crystal Lake Recreation Area is also shown. Starting at this trailhead adds about 800′ of elevation gain. The map can be zoomed, tilted, rotated, and panned using the navigation control on the right. Track and placename locations are approximate and subject to errors. Poor weather and other conditions may make this route unsuitable for this activity.

Some related posts:
Out and Back Trail Run from Islip Saddle to Mt. Baden-Powell – July 2024 Update
Mt. Hawkins Lightning Tree
It’s Mid-July And There Is Still Snow in Los Angeles County!

Rim Trail – Kenyon Devore Loop from the Top of Mt. Wilson

San Gabriels High County from the Rim Trail
San Gabriels High County from the Rim Trail

It was great to be back on the Rim Trail! One of the most underappreciated trails in Angeles National Forest, the 3.6 mile trail was closed in October 2020 because of the Bobcat Fire. It finally reopened in June of this year (2024).

Mt. Harvard from near the start of the Rim Trail on top of Mt. Wilson.
Mt. Harvard from near the start of the Rim Trail.

This morning’s run had started at the top of the Kenyon Devore Trail from the same turnout on Mt. Wilson Circle Road as two weeks before. This time, instead of running down Mt. Wilson Road, I had descended a short distance on the Kenyon Devore Trail and turned right (east) on a half-mile long trail that connects to the main Mt. Wilson parking lot. From there I followed the “Authorized Vehicles Only” road toward the observatory about a quarter-mile to the signed start of the Rim Trail. Interpretive signs along the road note some of the area’s plants and trees.

An exhilarating section of the Rim Trail where it is narrow and bounded by a rock wall.
An exhilarating stretch of the Rim Trail.

When done as a counterclockwise loop from Mt. Wilson, the Rim Trail switchbacks down Mt. Wilson’s steep northeast ridge and then contours along the north side of the West Fork – Santa Anita Canyon divide to Newcomb Pass. Along the way are spectacular views of the Mt. Wilson Observatory complex, the canyons of the West and East Forks San Gabriel River, and the high country of the San Gabriel Mountains. On a clear day, Saddleback, San Jacinto Peak, and San Gorgonio Mountain can be spotted from the trail. To the north, the vast Mojave desert stretches out from the foot of the mountains.

Even though it was closed for nearly four years, the Rim Trail was in remarkably good shape. The trail dips into and out of the Bobcat burn area as it works down the ridge and along the divide. Much of the trail was unscathed, but some sections were severely burned. Sadly, this beautiful bigcone Douglas-fir was destroyed.

Poison oak along the Rim Trail.
Poison oak along the Rim Trail.

Poodle-dog bush marks the stretches of trail burned in the Bobcat Fire. With care, it was generally avoidable, as was the abundant poison oak found on some sections of the trail. (Like poison oak, Poodle-dog bush causes a rash in many people.)

On the way down the Rim Trail, I’d debated which route to take from Newcomb Pass. One option was to run over to Newcomb Saddle and take Rincon-Redbox Road to West Fork. Another was to follow the Gabrielino Trail to Devore Camp and then West Fork. The single-track route through Devore Camp is a more interesting option and is usually my choice.

Trailwork on the Rim Trail near Newcomb Pass.
Trailwork on the Rim Trail near Newcomb Pass.

As I neared Newcomb Pass, I was surprised to see recent trailwork on the isolated stretch of trail. This was a hopeful sign the Gabrielino Trail between Newcomb Pass and Devore Camp might be in decent shape.

At Newcomb Pass, all signs of any trailwork ended. I looked at the first few overgrown yards of the trail connecting to Newcomb Saddle and thought, “I’ll give the Gabrielino Trail a try.” I could see an ill-defined path where the Gabrielino Trail should go and tried to follow it. No go. A lower path also appeared to be a dead end.

I enjoy the challenge of following little-used trails, but today was more interested in running than bushwhacking. Retracing my steps, I returned to the trail connecting to Newcomb Saddle.

Newly installed downslope drain blocking access to the Gabrielino Trail from Rincon-Redbox Road.
Newly installed downslope drain blocking access to the Gabrielino Trail

It wasn’t as bad as I initially thought. The trail was a bit overgrown, but was on an old roadbed and pretty easy to follow. (Later, I discovered I had a bite from a larval tick, which I’m sure I picked up in the Newcomb Pass area.)

Rincon-Redbox Road was wide open and in great shape. When I reached the point where the Gabrielino Trail crosses the road, neither direction on the trail looked particularly promising. Up the trail looked overgrown, and down the trail was blocked by a newly constructed drainage conduit. The Gabrielino Trail is a National Recreation Trail in a National Monument, so should (hopefully) be fully restored.

Jose and Gary cleaning debris underneath a log on the Gabrielino Trail near West Fork.
Jose and Gary cleaning debris underneath a log on the Gabrielino Trail near West Fork.

Running down Rincon-Redbox Road and lost in thought, I was somewhat startled to see a red truck round a bend. I was even more surprised when it turned out to be race director and trailmaster Gary Hilliard. Gary and Jose were out the weekend before the AC100 trying to chase down a couple of logs — one reported to be blocking access to the Newcomb Saddle aid station and another on the Gabrielino Trail “a half-mile from West Fork.”

I’ve had the privilege of running in all of Gary’s ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment races. No one works harder or is more dedicated to the trails of Angeles National Forest and trail running. I didn’t recall a log blocking the road, but it would only take Gary a few minutes to drive up to the aid station and be sure. With cruise control on and lost in thought, I continued running down to West Fork.

At West Fork, I stopped at “the pipe” to get water and cool off. From here, it’s a memorable 5-mile, 2600′ climb to the top of the Kenyon Devore Trail.

Kenyon Devore Trail on Mt. Wilson
Kenyon Devore Trail

I’d been here two weeks before. The Rim Trail – Newcomb Saddle – Kenyon Devore Loop is the mirror image of the Mt. Wilson – Red Box – Kenyon Devore Loop. Two weeks ago it was around 10 degrees warmer and humid. I’d bonked on the climb, and wasn’t looking to repeat that experience today.

This morning – except for a couple of rattlesnakes – the run from West Fork couldn’t have gone better! I even jogged some of the less steep sections of the Kenyon Devore Trail!

Here’s a high-resolution, interactive, 3D-terrain view of the Rim Trail – Newcomb Saddle – Kenyon Devore Loop. The Gabrielino Trail option through Devore Camp is also shown.

Some related posts:
A Place to Ponder Things Near and Far
A Morning Thunderstorm, Debris-Covered Trail, Fast-Paced Fire Road, and Tough Climb on the ANFTR 25K Course!
Running Mt. Wilson’s Rim Trail
GSU Mt. Wilson CHARA Telescope Array

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