A Morning Thunderstorm, Debris-Covered Trail, Fast-Paced Fire Road, and Tough Climb on the ANFTR 25K Course!

The canyon of the West Fork San Gabriel RIver and Rincon-Red Box Road from the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail.
The ANFTR courses follow Rincon-Red Box Road down this rugged canyon to West Fork.

Update October 2, 2024. I ran the ANFTR 25K Course on Sunday and the cuttings on the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail had been removed. The trail was clear and back to normal!

As I drove east on the 210 Freeway, a long bolt of lightning erupted from high in the clouds and pierced the valley below. The thunderstorm near Mt. Lukens looked spectacular. It was backlit by the rising sun, and intermittent lightning flashed against its dark gray clouds.

Theoretically, I was headed to Mt. Wilson. It was July. It was hot. It was time to get on the ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment race course! But was that going to be a good idea? A slight chance of a thunderstorm was forecast for the afternoon and already there was an active storm right in front of me.

Clouds over Mt. Lowe (left), Mt. Markham, Occidental Peak, and San Gabriel Peak. (thumbnail)
Clouds over Mt. Lowe (left), Mt. Markham, Occidental Peak, and San Gabriel Peak.

The Angeles National Forest Trail Races (aka Mt. Disappointment) is a popular event usually run in the heat of Summer after the Fourth of July. Because of the pandemic, Bobcat Fire, and trail and road closures, the race has been on hiatus since 2020, but a new race date appears to be in the works!

Another ragged bolt flashed horizontally across the clouds. The cell looked isolated and appeared to be moving to the north. I decided to take a chance and bet that the morning storm was a quirk. Still, it suggested a real possibility of a thunderstorm later in the day.

About the time I passed Trail Canyon on Big Tujunga Canyon Road, it started to rain, and the rain continued much of the way to Red Box. The activity was actually more extensive than the cell near Mt. Lukens — a band of thunderstorms had swept through the San Gabriel Mountains between Mt. Lukens and Mt. Wilson.

Running down still wet Mt. Wilson Road following a morning thunderstorm. (thumbnail)
Running down still wet Mt. Wilson Road following a morning thunderstorm.

Mt. Wilson Road was still wet as I started down the first leg of the ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment 60K/50K/25K courses. If you have to run on pavement, running downhill on super-scenic Mt. Wilson Road after a thunderstorm is about as good as it gets! The cleansed atmosphere and vivid smells in the wake of the storm were remarkable — as were the views down into the canyon of the West Fork San Gabriel River.

This morning, I was doing the 25K course, but all the distances follow the same route to Red Box. They start by running down Mt. Wilson Road to Eaton Saddle and then following Mt. Lowe Fire Road through Mueller Tunnel to Markham Saddle and the San Gabriel Peak Trail. The San Gabriel Peak Trail leads up to the Mt. Disappointment service road and, surprisingly, the high point of the 60K/50K/25K courses. This stretch of service road is higher than the start/finish on Mt. Wilson!

Cuttings from a forest-thinning project blocking the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail. (thumbnail)
Cuttings from a forest-thinning project blocking the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail.

Even if you have run a trail many, many times — and think you’re familiar with it — sooner or later, you’re going to encounter something you didn’t expect. From the Mt. Disappointment service road, the ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment courses turn onto the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail. After the first couple of switchbacks, there were an increasing number of cut limbs on the trail. Initially, the cuttings were not much of an issue, but became worse as I continued down the trail.

Partway down, I encountered two very upset hikers who had lost the trail. They had just decided to leave the trail and hike on the service road. They cautioned me that the section where they had problems was just below. They weren’t kidding. I’ve done this trail innumerable times and at one point also had difficulty locating it. I had to wade through an expanse of cuttings to stay on the trail.

I’ve been on trails impacted by forest thinning projects before. The crews that worked on those projects at least made an effort to keep the trails clear. No such attempt was made here — the cuttings were left where they fell, and if that was on the trail, too bad!

It was a relief to get off the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail and down to Mt. Wilson Road and Red Box.

Update October 2, 2024. I ran the ANFTR 25K Course on Sunday and the cuttings on the Mt. Disappointment/Bill Riley Trail had been removed. The trail was clear and back to normal!

The towers on Mt. Wilson -- where the car is parked -- from Rincon-Redbox Road. (thumbnail)
The towers on Mt. Wilson – where the car is parked – from Rincon-Redbox Road.

Unlike last year, Rincon-Red Box Road was in great shape. It was so well-graded that a Prius might have been able to drive down to West Fork. Much of the 5.5 miles down to West Fork are in full sun, so the temperature has a substantial impact. In the 2019 ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment 50K, the thermometer on my pack read about 80 degrees. In the 2017 50K, the temp on the same stretch was about 100 degrees. Today, it was around 90.

Whatever the temperature, there are excellent views down the West Fork and of the Mt. Wilson area. The towers on Mt. Wilson always look tantalizingly close, and the climb up Strayns Canyon doesn’t look that bad. (Ha!) Like last year, there were four or five creek-like crossings of the West Fork San Gabriel River.

The area around the spring at West Fork was a bit overgrown, but a trampled path through the grass below the cistern led to the outflow pipe. I refilled my hydration pack and drank my fill before setting off on the Gabrielino Trail. With the temperature in the sun at West Fork around 95, I should have spent more time at the spring cooling down.

Gabrielino Trail sign at West Fork. (thumbnail)
Gabrielino Trail sign at West Fork.

It’s only about 1.6 miles from the spring to where the Kenyon Devore Trail forks left off the Gabrielino Trail, but it often seems longer. Probably because I’m anticipating the turnoff and don’t want to miss it. This morning, it was also the hottest stretch on the course, with the temperature in the sun topping out at around 100 degrees.

Based on some recent runs, I expected the Poodle-dog bush on this stretch to be a problem, but most of the Poodle-dog bush had been trimmed or was wilting. It wasn’t the only thing that was wilting. Shortly after turning off the Gabrielino Trail and onto the Kenyon Devore Trail, the combination of heat and humidity hit me like the proverbial brick. I had to back off the pace.

Not long after that, I was startled by a runner coming up behind me. It turned out to be another runner from the West San Fernando Valley! Charlie was training for UTMB and putting in a tough 27-mile, 8700′ gain day. We had a great conversation about races, running, and adventures in the mountains. Despite the heat, he was moving well and soon disappeared up the trail.

Dome of the Hooker 100 inch Telescope on Mt. Wilson. (thumbnail)
It’s about a half-mile to the top of the Kenyon Devore Trail!

I continued chugging up the trail, noting familiar features as I climbed higher and higher. Eventually, the white dome of the Hooker 100 inch Telescope came into view, and I knew I just about done!

As I worked up the final half-mile of trail, I could see only a couple of  isolated build-ups of cumulus clouds. One was over the desert  and the other was to the east near San Gorgonio.  The sky over Mt. Wilson was mostly clear.

Here’s a high-resolution, interactive, 3D-terrain view of the Mt. Wilson – Red Box – West Fork – Kenyon Devore Loop. The loop is a slightly shorter version of the ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment 25K.

Some related posts:
After the Bobcat Fire: Running the ANFTR 25K Course
An ANFTR/Mt. Disappointment 2020 Adventure

Caught in a Thunderstorm on Rocky Peak

Sun and gathering clouds on Rocky Peak Road before a strong thunderstorm
Sun and gathering clouds on Rocky Peak Road

Rocky Peak Road is an exceptionally popular hiking and biking trail that starts at Santa Susana Pass, on the north side of the 118 Freeway. Regardless of the time of day or weather I ALWAYS see someone on this trail.

The plan for this afternoon’s run was to do an out and back on Rocky Peak Road to the top of the Chumash Trail (3.8 miles) or to Fossil Point (4.8 miles).

Another runner was finishing their workout as I started up the initial steep climb. Glistening in the warm sun, runoff from yesterday’s storm streaked some of the sandstone rocks, and ephemeral streams gurgled in the ravines and gullies.

Thanks to the sandstone geology, the dirt road wasn’t as muddy as most other local trails would be. Although heavily eroded from numerous Winter storms, it was still near the top of my list of places to run during periods of wet weather.

In the aftermath of yesterday’s storm the weather was spectacular. The temperature was warm enough to run in shorts and short-sleeves but still comfortable chugging up Rocky Peak Road’s steep hills. Puffy cumulus clouds filled the sky, creating postcard views at every turn.

Clouds developing over the San Fernando Valley (thumbnail)
Clouds developing over the San Fernando Valley. Click to enlarge.

More focused about getting up the hill than any weather concerns, I continued past the top of the Hummingbird Trail and through a gap in the rocks to a section of road with a good view of the San Fernando Valley and San Gabriel Mountains.

I’d been in a situation similar to this several times on Rocky Peak. As a storm moves east from Los Angeles, energy circulating around the low can sometimes result in “back-door” precipitation. In this scenario, clouds build-up over the mountains to the north and then drift over the San Fernando Valley, producing showers — and sometimes — thunderstorms.

But today’s scenario was a bit more complicated. A much larger area, extending east to the San Gabriel Mountains, was rapidly destabilizing. What had been a picturesque sky at the start of the run was now congested and ominous. The question wasn’t so much if it was going to rain, but if a thunderstorm was going to develop.

As I continued up the road, the sky darkened, the temperature cooled, and the wind became more gusty and fitful. A little chilly, I pulled on my arm sleeves. I laughed nervously as I mistook the roar of a passing jet for thunder. That was a jet, right?

When people say they are “doing Rocky Peak,” they are often referring to a high point on Rocky Peak Road that is west of the actual peak and about 2.4 miles from the trailhead. The final climb to this high point is a good one — gaining about 450 feet over three-quarters of a mile.

The road on this stretch is oriented in such a way that the terrain hides the view to the north. I was anxious to get to the top of the hill so I could get a better idea of what the weather was doing. As I worked up the road, I would occasionally feel the cold splash of a raindrop on one leg or the other.

Doppler radar of strong thunderstorm over Rocky Peak (Thumbnail)
Doppler radar of strong thunderstorm over Rocky Peak. Click to enlarge.

Nearing the top, I thought, “I may get wet, but at least there’s been no thunder.” Within seconds of that proclamation, and as I reached the highest point, there was a long, loud, crackling peal of thunder.

One look at the sky and all thoughts of continuing to the Chumash Trail were gone. I turned around and started running down the hill, hoping to avoid the worst of the storm.

First one pea-sized hailstone hit the ground, then another, and then a sleety barrage of rain and hail poured from the sky. Instantly soaked, I shuddered as thunder echoed overhead and cold rain ran down my back. Muddy water flowed in rivulets down the sodden road and I cautioned myself to run fast, but not too fast.

I didn’t expect to outrun the storm, but hoped I might move to a part of it that was less intense. And that’s what happened. As I descended, the deluge gradually diminished. Most of the activity seemed to be behind me and a little to the east.

Severe thunderstorm over Porter Ranch - Northridge area (Thumbnail)
Severe thunderstorm moving into the Porter Ranch – Northridge area. Click to enlarge.

By the time I got down to the Hummingbird Trail, it was only sprinkling. The strong cell that had been over Rocky Peak had drifted southeast, and was now over the Porter Ranch – Northridge area.

National Weather Service Doppler Radar tells the story. At the start of the run there were scattered, mostly weak echoes. At 3:06 pm, as I was starting up the last long hill, a cell northwest of Rocky Peak was developing and drifting southeast. Over the next 16 minutes the cell continued to move southeastward and strengthen, and at 3:22 pm was over the Rocky Peak area. I turned around and started down as the cell moved into that area.

The cell over Rocky Peak continued to strengthen, and at 3:39 pm had drifted over the Porter Ranch – Northridge area. At 3:44 pm the NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Western Los Angeles County.

Here are a GOES-18 satellite loop and Doppler Radar loop that show the development and track of the Rocky Peak thunderstorm.

Some related posts:
Rainy Weather Running on Rocky Peak Road
Running Between Raindrops: Chumash Trailhead to Rocky Peak
Thunderstorm

Acton Thunderstorm

Developing thunderstorm over the Acton area, north of Los Angeles, from Ahmanson Ranch near the Los Angeles County - Ventura County border.

Developing thunderstorm over the Acton area, north of Los Angeles, from Ahmanson Ranch near the Los Angeles County – Ventura County border. The photo was taken about 4:10 p.m. PDT today, during another hot and humid Ahmanson run.

Cloud tops were reported to be over 50,000 feet. The distance from Ahmanson Ranch (now Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve) to Acton is about 35 miles.

Southern California Thunderstorms an El Nino Calling Card?

Valley oak on Lasky Mesa, with a line of thunderstorms in the distance.

Off to the south, I heard the distant rumble of thunder. The developing line of thunderstorms had swept through the West Valley about an hour before I began my run at Ahmanson Ranch.

Unusual weather for June. Not so much that there were thunderstorms, but that the thunderstorms were in part the result of an unseasonably strong jet embedded in the base of an upper level low.

It’s a bit of a stretch, but an argument could be made that these storms were a calling card of an increasingly energetic atmosphere, and a developing El Niño.

Several factors point to an increased probability of El Niño conditions developing over the next few months. Among them, Equatorial Pacific SSTs have increased, and the subsurface heat content is the highest it’s been since the El Niño of 2006-07.

But as the short-lived 2006-07 El Niño event demonstrates, an El Niño is more than just warm Pacific equatorial SSTs. Through complex forcing and feedback mechanisms, the atmosphere and oceans have to cooperate on a global scale. Generally speaking the atmosphere speeds up when there is an El Niño, and slows down during a La Nina.

And it looks like the atmosphere may be speeding up. Orbits of the Global Wind Oscillation, a measure of atmospheric momentum, have been shifting upward, in the direction of more energetic values usually associated with an El Niño.

But an El Niño is not a done deal. The climate system is just leaning in that direction. As climate scientist Klaus Wolter has pointed out, in a similar situation in 1973-1975, the climate fell back into a La Niña for another year. At this point it appears we may be diverging from that analog case. We’ll see!

Update June 6, 2009. The April-May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value, released today, has increased by 0.54 to +0.34. As discussed by MEI originator, Klaus Wolter, the 3-month rise of the MEI since January-February is the 4th highest on record for this time of year, exceeded only by the strong Niño of 1997. According to Dr. Wolter, if next month’s MEI rank is at least the same as this month (37th), “it would be unprecedented for it to drop below that high-neutral ENSO-phase range by the end of 2009, virtually excluding a return to La Niña, based on the MEI record since 1950.”

Related links: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, ENSO Wrap-Up

Thunderstorm

Developing cumulonimbus near Mt. Abel

Developing Cumulonimbus Near Mt. Abel

Saturday, Pierce College in Woodland Hills set an all-time record high temperature of 119°F. Following a preliminary review, a NWS forecaster said this was probably the highest temperature ever recorded at an official weather station in Los Angeles County.

To escape this oppressive heat, and avoid the scorching temperatures of last week’s long run, my intent was to get to the highest elevation possible, as early as possible, and stay as cool as possible. At an elevation of about 8400′, the Mt. Pinos Chula Vista trailhead is nearly 2000′ higher than Islip Saddle in the San Gabriel Mountains, and is usually a good choice for a run on a warm day.


San Gabriel beardtongue (Penstemon labrosus) near Sheep Camp.
A little after 7:30 a.m., under nearly cloudless skies, I jogged out of the Mt. Pinos parking lot reveling in the cool mountain air. I didn’t have a specific route in mind, but thought I would probably do a longer variation of the Mt. Pinos to Mt. Abel run described in my Vincent Tumamait Trail post. Energized by the cool temperature, it didn’t take long to work up and over the summits of Mt. Pinos (8831′) and Sawmill Mountain (8816′), and then down the North Fork Trail to the spring at Sheep Camp (8200′).

Surrounded by the greens of the spring, and the yellows and reds of wildflowers, I gulped cold water, and thought about where to run. A sign at the “T” with the Tumamait Trail listed the distance to “Lily Meadows Camp” as 3 miles. I hadn’t been on that section of North Fork trail since preparing to run the Inca Trail in 2003.

Deciding to continue down to Lily Meadows Camp, I crossed over the spring and followed the little used, pine needle covered trail southeast along the hillside. The trail dropped steeply along a rounded ridge, where mountain quail fretted among the manzanita and fallen trees, and the minty fragrance of Pennyroyal drifted up from the margins of the trail. Quicly losing elevation, I reminded myself that whatever I ran down, I would have to go back up.

After about a mile and a half, the path switchbacked down to the North Fork of Lockwood Creek. Here, the grade lessened and long stretches of nearly perfect trail running led to Lily Meadows Camp (6250′). Old growth Jeffry pines towered above the camp, and a Monarch butterfly flittered about on a current of air. The pleasant, Sierra-like environment was a welcome change from the 100 degree heat of the previous week!


The first cloud!
An 1800′ climb and an hour later, I’m back at Sheep Camp, refilling my Camelbak®. Suddenly a shadow sweeps over the forest, and a small cloud – the first cloud – looms overhead. It’s just after 11:00 a.m., and the heat of the day has triggered some cloud development. After taking a few photos and eating a Clif® Bar, I decide I better get going, and jog up to the junction with the Tumamait Trail.

Reaching the trail junction at about 11:30 a.m., what had been a single tattered cloud in the sky is now several, and my “inner voice” of experience says, “Turn right, you can be back to the car in under an hour!” But it has been such an enjoyable day, and there aren’t that many clouds… I turn left towards Mt. Abel.

At first, shadow and sun play tag among the trees and I join in, chasing the clouds down the twisting and turning trail. The partly cloudy skies are postcard perfect, and I wonder if my concerns are ill-founded. But as the superb downhill segment transitions to up, a gray gloom invades the forest. At Mt. Abel Road, it’s noon. Rationalizing that the extra minutes required to scramble up to Mt. Abel’s summit won’t hurt, I cross the road and head up the steep slope.


The sun breaks through the darkening sky, illuminating the face of Grouse Mountain.
Seven minutes later, I’m back at Mt. Abel road. For a brief moment, a narrow shaft of sun breaks through the darkening sky, illuminating the face of Grouse Mountain. It washes across the slopes of the mountain, and then suddenly all is in shadow. At that instant, I know I’m in a race that I cannot win.

A quarter mile down the trail, the first cold drops of rain dampen my bare legs, and in another quarter mile, there is a rumble of thunder to the north, and then another rumble behind me. Part way up Grouse Mountain, there is a flash, and then directly above me an immediate ear-splitting, crackling clap of thunder. From the first few clouds to the first lightning has taken little more than an hour!

In an astonishingly short period of time, the rain, lightning and thunder grow in magnitude. Flash – boom! Flash – boom! The storm engulfs me as it grows in intensity. In the expanded microseconds that follow each lightning flash, I  breathe a sigh of relief that I’m not struck, and then bodily recoil from the immediate and overwhelming power of the crashing thunder.

Cresting the shoulder of Grouse Mountain, I think back to a storm in the San Gabriels, where instead of striking an obvious ridge, a bolt of lightning struck a nondescript tree on the slopes below. There is no place to hide from this monster. I adopt a tactic of almost sprinting through open areas, past tall trees, and when the electric motor smell of ozone fills the air. In areas that seem a little safer, I slow my pace.

At the top of another long climb, near the North Fork trail junction, I’m surprised to see a group of 8 or 9 hikers huddled under a pine tree. They are probably surprised to see someone running along the hilltops. From the first rumble of thunder, I’ve been considering whether hunkering down in the forest off the ridge might be a better strategy. If I had my shell pants, or my runner’s emergency bivi sack (a plastic trash bag), it might be. But wearing just my rain shell, a short-sleeve synthetic top and running shorts, I’m under-dressed for this get together.

Off to the east, in the direction of Mt. Pinos, the sky seems lighter. Maybe the wind is shifting the cells to the west and north. I have no idea how long this thing is going to last, and the pounding rain and gusty winds are sleety cold. I don’t want to stop. Not at all sure it is the better choice, I wish the hikers the best, and continue up the trail toward Sawmill Mountain.

The storm, and my emotions, wax and wane in a recognizable, but hard to define pattern. Periods of awe, elation and fear cycle with the storm. It has only been 30 minutes since the rain and thunder began, but in my distorted world, it might have been 30 hours. The steady rain has flooded the trail, and I feel like I am crossing a never ending creek.


Hurried photo near the top of Sawmill Mountain, when the storm was nearing peak intensity.
As I near the summit plateau of Sawmill Mountain, erratic gusts of wind tear at the trees. Then suddenly, as if a dam has broken, a deluge of lightning, thunder, rain and hail spills from the sky. It is the most intense rain I have ever experienced. A pounding rain, thick with hail, driven by a downburst of wind and gravity. Torrents of water cascade down the trail. It is ferocious.

Running through the maelstrom across the plateau, ahead I can see the point where the trail drops off the summit, and descends to a saddle. I just have to get there. Lightning flashes, and thunder booms behind me. My feet are numbed and cold, and I wonder how water on the trail can be calf deep.  Reaching the shoulder of the mountain, I start to descend. From time to time I get a glimpse of Mt. Pinos, and I can see a little smudge of blue under the dark clouds over the summit. As I descend toward the saddle, the intensity of the storm seems to be diminishing. There is still lightning, thunder and rain, but for a moment the focus of the storm seems to be shifting elsewhere. I take a deep breath, and debate what I’m going to do about getting over the exposed summit of Mt. Pinos.


Looking back at ridge on Sawmill Mountain from shoulder of Mt. Pinos.
There are still two groups of active cells. The main thunderstorm complex seems to be behind me, toward Mt. Abel; but there is also an active group of cells just north of Mt. Pinos. While I’ve seen no lightning strike the summit of Mt. Pinos, it is almost a certainty. I decide to work up the switchbacks toward the summit, continuing my tactic of minimizing my time in areas that are exposed. The rain has nearly stopped, and I haven’t smelled ozone since on Sawmill Mountain, but some sections of the trail are frighteningly exposed. Working up to the highest point that appears to offer some protection, I pause and listen. The timing may be right. The thunderstorm activity seems to be in a down cycle.

I leave my alcove. In seconds I’ve rounded a rocky rib of the peak, and am suddenly the tallest and most linear object on its bare shoulder. Thunder rumbles off to the north, a reminder I don’t need. Heart pounding, I’ve already pushed the pace as much as the grade, elevation, and my body will allow, and now there is nothing for me to do but run.

It is not a relief to reach the summit. I see a bolt of lightning strike to the northeast, near a radio tower less than a quarter mile away. Partially hidden from view, I can’t tell if the lightning struck the tower, or a ridge beyond. It doesn’t matter. I have to get off the summit.


Mariposa lily (Calochortus invenustus) west of Mt. Pinos.
Running along the road from the observation point, I’m nervous about going in the direction of the relay tower, and the last lightning strike. I know the road will soon turn downhill, but as hard as I am running, I don’t seem to be getting anywhere. Finally, I see, and then round the turn. Another 50 yards, and for the moment I’m safe. A dash across one meadow, and then another, and the main danger is past.

To the east, I see more blue sky, and broken clouds. Continuing to descend, I hear a group of Chickadees chattering in a nearby tree. They sound happy. So am I.

Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of a GPS trace of my route.

Epilogue: According to the American Meteorological Society, lightning kills more people per year on average than hurricanes and tornadoes combined. For more information regarding lightning safety, please see the National Weather Service Lightning Safety page. Here’s what the thunderstorm looked like on radar.

(The title photograph is of a developing cumulonimbus near Mt. Abel. It was taken on a run at Sage Ranch on July, 19, 2006.)