Monthly Archives: October 2008

nature, nature|weather, weather, weather|el nino, weather|southern california

Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Downtown Los Angeles (USC) happened to be under the right cloud yesterday, and recorded 0.02 inch of rain. There’s a continuing chance of showers in Southern California through the weekend. The area could use some rain. The last storm to produce more than a couple tenths of inch of rain at Downtown Los Angeles was back on February 24, 2008 — more than eight months ago.

Last year, California’s rain season might have been scripted by Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Lowland rain totals and the Sierra snowpack were well above normal through the end of February, and then the spigot was turned off. The storm track shifted north, and California had its driest March to May on record. (The March 29, 2008 post in Ed Berry’s Atmospheric Insights blog describes the events that may have led to and maintained this shift.)

Which rain season personality will surface this Winter? Earlier this year the equatorial Pacific tried to transition to El Nino, but the atmosphere didn’t cooperate. As measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the ENSO state has returned to the weak La Nina threshold. And as measured by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), an uncooperative atmosphere has continued to cycle through a La Nina base state.

This suggests a winter precipitation outlook with a La Nina flavor — similar to last year. This precipitation map, generated by the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page, shows the mean November-March precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. The average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range. Last season’s November-March rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles was about 12 inches.

Here’s the current Nov-Dec-Jan precipitation outlook issued October 16 by the Climate Prediction Center. The “EC” means an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan is similar. We’ll see what we get!

nature, trails, trails|smmc open space

Rocky Peak After the Sesnon Fire

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

View southeast toward Porter Ranch from the summit of Rocky Peak following the Sesnon Fire.

My run to “Fossil Point” on Rocky Peak road, and side trip to Rocky Peak, was not the appalling experience I’ve come to expect when investigating a wildland area that has been overrun by a Southern California brush fire. Much of the chaparral along the fire road was not burned. Here are a few photos:

View southeast toward Porter Ranch from the summit of Rocky Peak (larger image).

View north toward Rocky Peak where the trail levels out, about 1.4 miles from the trailhead.

Burned area near viewpoint of Simi Valley about 2.3 miles from the trailhead.

View north from the summit of Rocky Peak. Rocky Peak fire road is on the far left, and the Johnson trail is on the right.

Unburned area along Rocky Peak fire road about 2.8 miles from the trailhead. Rocky Peak is the peak on the left.

False color image of slopes on the southwest side of Blind Canyon. The image has been modified to emphasize burned and unburned areas.

Some related posts: Chumash Trail – Sesnon & Simi Fires, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak

nature, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Chumash Trail – Sesnon & Simi Fires

first published & last updated
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Scorched yerba santa along the Chumash Trail.

This weather worn sandstone boulder is a familiar landmark to those who do the Chumash Trail. It’s a little less than a mile up the trail, and is at the point where the trail turns east and continues its climb along a cobble strewn divide. The chaparral here and elsewhere along the Chumash Trail was burned last week by the western front of the Sesnon fire.

In the areas bordering the Chumash Trail, the Sesnon Fire appears to have been much less intense than the 2003 Simi Fire. In the case of the Simi Fire, it had been about 15 years since the area was burned, the fuel load was moderately high, and the fire intensity was such that nearly all plant materials were consumed down to the mineral earth.

Recovery from the Simi Fire has been primarily through the slow processes of basal-sprouting and seed germination. Just prior to the Sesnon Fire, common chaparral plants such as chamise, yerba santa, toyon and holly-leaved cherry had recovered about 70% to 90% of their 2003 size.

The recency of the Simi fire appears to have reduced the fuel load available to the Sesnon Fire. In many cases grasses and other annuals (many invasive) were consumed, but adjacent chaparral shrubs were only scorched. Many of these shrubs look like they will probably be able to recover through foliage replacement, rather than crown-sprouting. One exception might be laurel sumac, which appears to have been less fire tolerant.

Update 12/23/08. Only a small percentage of the scorched Yerba Santa are recovering through direct foliage replacement. Most of these plants are recovering through the process of crown sprouting.

In addition to reducing the fire danger, a little light rain would help jump start the recovery process. Computer weather models have been hinting at a change in the weather around November 1, and now seem to be converging on the possibility of a shower in Southern California around Halloween, followed by a front and some rain later in the weekend. That’s still a week away, so we’ll have to see!

Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of the perimeters of the Sesnon and Simi Fires, as well as GPS traces of some of the trails in the area.

photography, photography|landscape, pt mugu state park, running, running|adventures, trail running, trails, trails|smmc open space

La Jolla Valley & Mugu Peak from Wendy Drive

first published & last updated
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Pt. Mugu from Mugu Peak.

The scat appeared to be a day or two old, and was much bigger than a coyote’s. It was full of fur and could only be from one animal — a mountain lion. The spot had been used before, and it probably wasn’t a coincidence that this was one of the few points along the trail with a good view and nearby cover. I looked into the brush and wondered if unseen eyes looked back.

The sun was well above the horizon, but the first gusts of a developing Santa Ana wind kept the morning cool. No one was on the trail ahead or behind me, and the best I could tell, I was the only two-legged creature within sight.


Spring in La Jolla Valley. Boney Mountain in the distance. March 2002.
Walking slowly from the spot, I surveyed the secluded valley. Perched on the edge of the coastal mountains, La Jolla Valley is extraordinary. Surrounded by wind-sculpted peaks, it is situated above and to the west of Big Sycamore Canyon. Its bottom is carpeted with areas of native and non-native grass. Only a tiny percentage of California’s native perennial grasslands remain, and like the big trees, they are relics of the past. Preservation of this native grassland is probably due to the valley’s proximity to the ocean, and its unique microclimate.

Here, trails have been run and peaks climbed for thousands of years. (Charcoal at an archaeological site in the valley has been dated to a maximum age of 7000 B.P.) Above me a raven calls, and Spirit-like, a gust of wind rustles through the grass. Respectfully, I continue running in the direction of Mugu Peak.

—

The run from Wendy Dr. was more moderate than expected. The first 3 miles of Sycamore Canyon Fire Road are paved, and whether on the fire road, or the single track trails that parallel the road at times, a fast pace can be maintained down to the junction with Wood Canyon Fire Road.

The Wood Canyon Vista Trail/Backbone Trail takes off right (west) from Sycamore Canyon Fire Road a short distance past the Wood Canyon Fire Road junction. It is moderately graded and very runnable. At it’s top a short zig right (north) on the Overlook Fire Road leads to the La Jolla Valley Fire Road, which can be followed left (west) down into La Jolla Valley.

Many, many variations of this course are possible. Here are archived maps of Rancho Sierra Vista/Satwiwa and Pt. Mugu State Park originally from the NPS Santa Monica Mountains web site. Also see the Pt. Mugu State Park maps on VenturaCountyTrails.org.

Depending on whether you want the beta, a little time in Google Earth should help clarify the options. This particular course worked out to about 21 miles, with about 2200 ft. of elevation gain/loss. Here’s a Google Earth image and 3D interactive view of a GPS trace of my route.

photography, photography|landscape, running, running|adventures, trails, trails|smmc open space

Boney Mountain – Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit – Coyote Trail Variation

first published & last updated
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

https://photographyontherun.com/content/binary/BoneyMountain1000130b.jpg

It’s fun to link together several trails into a loop, and it’s even more fun when the trails are single-track, or at least have a single-track flavor. The Boney Mountain – Big Sycamore Canyon circuit links together segments of more than ten trails and roads in Rancho Sierra Vista/Satwiwa and Pt. Mugu State Park. The route is characterized by airy ridges, steep climbs, wide-ranging views, towering rock formations, and one of the best downhill running segments in the Santa Monica Mountains. Today’s run expanded the loop, adding even more single-track trail — and elevation gain.

This route also climbs over Boney Mountain and descends the Chamberlain Trail segment of the Backbone Trail. However, at the Old Boney Trail junction, instead of descending to the Danielson multi-use area on the Old Boney Trail (northbound) and Blue Canyon Trail, this route follows the Old Boney Trail (westbound) to Sycamore Canyon Fire Road.

From the junction of the Old Boney Trail with the Sycamore Canyon Fire Road the goal is to hook up with the Coyote Trail, which can be seen switchbacking steeply up a slope on the other side of the canyon. We did this by continuing about 0.5 mile down Sycamore Canyon Fire Road, and then turning right on Wood Canyon Fire Road. The Two Foxes Trail starts a short distance up the fire road, and in about 0.4 mile leads to the start of the Coyote Trail. Once on the Coyote Trail it is about 2.3 tough — and often hot — miles to the start of the Hidden Pond Trail at Ranch Center Road. The rest of the route is the same as in the Boney Mountain – Big Sycamore Canyon circuit.

All in all the course is about 21 miles long, with 4000 ft. of elevation gain/loss. Here’s a Google Earth image and Google Earth KMZ file of a GPS trace of the route.