Category Archives: weather|southern california

nature, nature|weather, photography, running, running|adventures, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Summer Returns

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Poison Oak along the Blue Canyon Trail.

Poison Oak Along the Blue Canyon Trail.

Since nearly all my weekday runs are in the afternoon, on Summer weekends I usually like to escape the heat and do a run in the mountains — the higher, the better. But today even the mountains were going to be hot. Hot enough that the National Weather Service had issued an Excessive Heat Warning for a combination of heat and humidity that would “create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely.”

It would be cooler at the higher elevations of the Sierra, but there was good chance of thunderstorms developing along the crest of the Sierra, as well as most of the higher mountains of Southern California. Considering the options, I finally decided to do an early morning run in Pt. Mugu State Park. If I was going to run in the heat, it might as well be a scenic run close to home. Maybe the weather in the mountains would be better next weekend.


Sunrise on the Satwiwa loop trail.
There are many excellent courses at Pt. Mugu State Park. The course I was doing today is a “backward” variant of the Boney Mountain Half Marathon Course — up the Old Boney Trail, down to the Danielson Multi-use area, up Ranch Center fire road to the Hidden Pond Trail, and then back on the Upper Sycamore Trail. Water is normally available at Danielson Multi-use area and at the start of the Upper Sycamore Trail.

I should have started the run at dawn, but instead ambled along a section of the Satwiwa Loop trail at sunrise. The light was muted and golden, stretching my shadow well out on the trail ahead. Cool trickles of air filled each dip and gully and I wondered how long the temperate conditions would last. Ironically, the last time I had done this course it had been blustery and cold, and there had been snow on the mountains above Ventura. Not today…


Crags above the Danielson cabin site on Boney Mountain.
It was warm running up the east facing section of the Old Boney Trail, but not yet hot. The crags to the west of the Danielson cabin site, gleamed in the morning sun, and for a brief instant I debated climbing the ridge. The impulse passed, and once over the shoulder of Boney Mountain, I thoroughly enjoyed the (mostly) downhill running through the Boney Mountain Wilderness to the Blue Canyon Trail junction. Cool air draining from the shaded slopes of Boney Mountain kept temps reasonable in the canyon, and the running was good all the way to the Danielson Multi-use area.


Descending to the Old Boney and Blue Canyon trail junction.
At the Multi-use area there is a choice. The coolest and most direct route to the Upper Sycamore Trail is up shaded (and paved) Sycamore Canyon road. But with the Mt Disappointment race looming, I wanted to get in more time and elevation gain, so opted for the longer, more exposed route up the Ranch Center fire road, and then along the ridge on the Hidden Pond Trail. Yes it was hot, and the humidity was up a bit, but it was still scenic and enjoyable in a “I’m not going to let the heat get to me” kind of way. And I knew a water faucet was waiting for me at the point where the Hidden Pond Trail rejoins Sycamore Canyon road, and the Upper Sycamore Trail continues eastward.

Maybe it was the heat, or maybe the coyote had learned to scavenge food from hikers — whatever the case the coyote ahead of me on the Upper Sycamore trail didn’t seem to be in any particular hurry to get off the trail. Coyotes are an odd sort, very intelligent and adaptable, but in my experience not normally any kind of threat.

Usually they will scurry away from a runner. This coyote wasn’t scurrying anywhere. I picked up the pace and clapped my hands, and eventually the animal grudgingly took cover to the side of the trail. But, as it turns out, only about 4 feet off the trail. This was odd, brazen behavior, and I kept a wary eye as I passed.

The final challenge of the morning was the hot climb up to Satwiwa on the Danielson road from the end of the Upper Sycamore Trail. The hill isn’t long or particularly steep, but it faces directly into the sun. With the heat of the day building, it wasn’t easy.

Overall it was an excellent run that would have been even better with an earlier start. Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of the approximately 14.5 mile route.

Related post: Big Sycamore Canyon Circuit

nature, nature|weather, photography, photography|trail running, running, running|adventures, trails, trails|san gabriels, weather, weather|southern california

Cool Running in Southern California

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Dave Burke cruising down a nice section of the PCT between Cloudburst Summit and Cooper Canyon.

Last year on this date, Southern California was in the middle of a heatwave. On June 20, 2008, Los Angeles Pierce College in Woodland Hills reached a record-setting high of 111°F, and on June 21 the temp reached 108°F!


Snow plant
Not so this June! So far this month, Downtown Los Angeles has not had a day when the average temperature was above normal. And it’s not only the low elevation stations that have been cool. Several times this month the overnight low at the Big Pines RAWS, near Wrightwood in the San Gabriel Mountains, has dropped into the thirties, and daytime temps have averaged more than 10 degrees below normal.


Three Points - Mt. Waterman Trail, west of the Twin Peaks Trail junction.
This translates to great running weather in Southern California, and near perfect weather for trail running in the San Gabriel Mountains. Today, did the Three Points – Buckhorn loop, along with a short detour up to the summit of Waterman Mountain. The route worked out to about 23 miles with a reality-checked elevation gain/loss of about 3800′. Here’s a Cesium browser View of a GPS trace of the run.

The title photo is of Dave Burke, cruising down a nice section of the PCT between Cloudburst Summit and Cooper Canyon.

Related post: Three Points Loop Plus Mt. Waterman

nature, nature|weather, photography, photography|landscape, weather, weather|el nino, weather|southern california

Southern California Thunderstorms an El Nino Calling Card?

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Valley oak on Lasky Mesa, with a line of thunderstorms in the distance.

Off to the south, I heard the distant rumble of thunder. The developing line of thunderstorms had swept through the West Valley about an hour before I began my run at Ahmanson Ranch.

Unusual weather for June. Not so much that there were thunderstorms, but that the thunderstorms were in part the result of an unseasonably strong jet embedded in the base of an upper level low.

It’s a bit of a stretch, but an argument could be made that these storms were a calling card of an increasingly energetic atmosphere, and a developing El Niño.

Several factors point to an increased probability of El Niño conditions developing over the next few months. Among them, Equatorial Pacific SSTs have increased, and the subsurface heat content is the highest it’s been since the El Niño of 2006-07.

But as the short-lived 2006-07 El Niño event demonstrates, an El Niño is more than just warm Pacific equatorial SSTs. Through complex forcing and feedback mechanisms, the atmosphere and oceans have to cooperate on a global scale. Generally speaking the atmosphere speeds up when there is an El Niño, and slows down during a La Nina.

And it looks like the atmosphere may be speeding up. Orbits of the Global Wind Oscillation, a measure of atmospheric momentum, have been shifting upward, in the direction of more energetic values usually associated with an El Niño.

But an El Niño is not a done deal. The climate system is just leaning in that direction. As climate scientist Klaus Wolter has pointed out, in a similar situation in 1973-1975, the climate fell back into a La Niña for another year. At this point it appears we may be diverging from that analog case. We’ll see!

Update June 6, 2009. The April-May Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value, released today, has increased by 0.54 to +0.34. As discussed by MEI originator, Klaus Wolter, the 3-month rise of the MEI since January-February is the 4th highest on record for this time of year, exceeded only by the strong Niño of 1997. According to Dr. Wolter, if next month’s MEI rank is at least the same as this month (37th), “it would be unprecedented for it to drop below that high-neutral ENSO-phase range by the end of 2009, virtually excluding a return to La Niña, based on the MEI record since 1950.”

Related links: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, ENSO Wrap-Up

nature, nature|clouds, nature|weather, photography, photography|landscape, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Rocky Peak Running Weather

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

View northwest from Rocky Peak

Brrr… I picked up the pace — even with long sleeves it was COLD on Rocky Peak Road. Another in a series of blustery April systems was stirring up the weather in Southern California. Thickening clouds spritzed rain, and a belligerent wind told me in laughing gusts that I could not run fast enough to stay warm.

Occasionally a patch of sun would find its way through the clouds, briefly warm and encouraging. I needed only  to think of the 100 degree days ahead to appreciate the chilly temps.

Another cool system is forecast to move through Southern California on Friday, bringing with it a chance of rain — and more great running weather. Easter weekend should be spectacular!

Some related posts: Simi Valley from Rocky Peak, San Fernando Valley from Rocky Peak

nature, nature|weather, photography, photography|trail running, running, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Southern California Warming Up and Drying Out?

published
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Trail leading to Lasky Mesa at Ahmanson Ranch.

There are still a few rogue mud puddles out at Ahmanson ranch, but the Goldfields are blooming, the meadowlarks singing, and it feels like Spring!

Last week it looked like our rain season might not be over. Now I’m beginning to wonder. This week the GFS and ECMWF forecasts have been much drier in Southern California, with most of the activity focused on the Pacific Northwest. No significant rain is forecast here over the next week, and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts project below average precipitation in Southern California.

If these medium range forecasts are on the mark, March rainfall for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) will fall well below the 3.14 inch norm. Normal April rainfall is 0.83 inches, and May only 0.31 inches. Beyond March it becomes increasingly unlikely that a big rain event will significantly boost our rainfall total.

Since November 1, Downtown Los Angeles has recorded 8.80 inches of precipitation. This is about what would be expected during a La Nina, and within the range indicated in the composite precipitation map included in the post Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook, back in October.

In his March 6 post, Ed Berry suggested the possibility of “more energetic progressive troughs” in the western U.S in the week 2-3 timeframe. That wouldn’t necessarily result in rain in Southern California, but might improve our chances. Numerical weather model performance generally suffers during seasonal transitions, so maybe there are still some surprises lurking in the Pacific. We’ll see!

nature, nature|clouds, nature|weather, photography, photography|landscape, running, running|adventures, trails, trails|smmc open space, weather, weather|southern california

Malibu Creek State Park Shadow & Sun

first published & last updated
Click on thumbnails for more info & larger image.

Malibu Creek State Park

My trail running shoes had not been wet or muddy since sometime in December. During the entire month of January, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded about one-third of an inch of rain. Not only had it been dry, it had been warm. On a dozen of those January days, the high temperature topped eighty degrees, setting a new record!

But Winter had returned. The past three days, Los Angeles had received about 1.5 inches of rain, valley and foothill locations 2-4 inches, and some mountain stations as much as 5-7 inches. And more Winter weather was on the way. Excited about the change in the weather, today’s run was one with good muck and mire potential — the Bulldog Loop in Malibu Creek State Park.

We were not disappointed. Near Century Lake, mud the consistency of peanut butter pulled at our shoes and slowed the climb up Crags Rd, Further west, near the M*A*S*H site, calf-deep water on the trail washed the gunk off.


Pt. Dume from the Mesa Peak ridgeline.
The trail conditions on the remainder of the loop were more straightforward. From time to time, shafts of sun would pierce the clouds, resulting in a patchwork of shadow and sun that emphasized the rugged terrain. Along the crest, the ocean views were superb! Before descending to Tapia Park we ran out to Mesa Peak, and then followed the ridgeline to an overlook of the coast. (Marked peak 1800 on the topo.)

Including the side trip to the overlook, this variation of the Bulldog loop worked out to an exhilarating 16.5 miles, with an elevation gain/loss of about 2700 ft.

If current forecasts and outlooks for this month hold true, this won’t be our last wet and muddy trail run this February. In a couple of weeks, Los Angeles rainfall totals may climb above normal for the first time this rain season. We’ll see!

Some related posts: Fog Along Malibu Creek, Bulldog Loop and the Corral Fire