Category Archives: weather|southern california

Blue Skies and Short Sleeves on Strawberry Peak

Mt. Baldy from near the summit of Strawberry Peak, in the San Gabriel Mountains.

My legs were still pretty worked from the Boney Mountain Half Marathon. Instead of backing off of the pace on my weekday workouts, I had continued to experiment with a change in running technique that was resulting in faster paced runs. I was excited about the increase in speed, but logging fast times on oft-run courses after a strenuous race doesn’t equal recovery. Neither does blasting up a peak in the San Gabriel Mountains.

But it was one of those impossible to ignore, blue sky, short-sleeved Southern California Winter weekends. This would be an unprecedented eighth straight January day that the high temperature in Los Angeles exceeded eighty degrees. In the yin yang of weather, the western half of the U.S. has been enjoying unusually warm temps, while the eastern half of the country shivered.

Taking maximum advantage of the good weather, yesterday I had done a little kayaking on the Kern River, this morning some rock climbing at Stoney Point, and now we were huffing and puffing up Strawberry Peak (6164′) — and doing it “for time.”

We had started at Red Box, the shortest and technically most moderate way to climb the peak. By this route it’s about 3.4 miles to the summit, with an elevation gain of roughly 1600 ft. About two-thirds of that distance is well-graded trail, the rest is steep use trail up a broad, brush covered ridge.

About halfway between Lawlor Saddle and the summit of Strawberry it became plainly and painfully evident that my legs had given their all. I complain. Miklos — always sympathetic — asks why I can’t go any faster.

On the final steep push to the summit ridge I try a different tactic to slow the pace, and tell a story about an unbelievably angry and aggressive raccoon I once encountered near here. But like President Jimmy Carter’s rabbit incident, it loses something in the telling. Redlined, we crest the summit ridge and sprint (relatively speaking) toward the summit.

On the summit, there is not a breath of wind. The view is exceptional. To the southwest, sunlight gleams on the waters of the Pacific near Palos Verdes, and to the west snow gleams white on Mt. Baldy. Some 90 miles distant, near Palm Springs, is the asymmetric silhouette of Mt. San Jacinto.

Soon we’re headed down. As I drop below the summit ridge, a snowball whizzes past my ear, crashing on the trail ahead. It has been warm and dry for weeks, but remarkably, there are a few patches of snow. It is a reminder that Winter is not over, and like the snow, is lurking in the shadows.

Green and Growing

Greening grass at Sage Ranch Park

Green beneath Summer’s bleached stalks, the growth of this grass at Sage Ranch reflects the near normal rain season we’ve had to date in the Los Angeles area, and over much of Southern California. Since the start of the water year on July 1, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded 4.66 inches of rain. When this photograph was taken, January 11th, 4.66 inches was almost exactly normal rainfall for the date.

However, as is so often the case in Southern California, this apparent normality is the sum of offsetting wet and dry periods. December’s precipitation was generally well above normal, but January has been dry, dry, dry. Today, the Los Angeles rainfall total is about 0.5 inch below normal, and every day it doesn’t rain, our deficit increases by about 0.10 inch.

So when might it rain? A very strong 200 kt Pacific jet stream has pushed up a high pressure ridge over the West Coast, blocking storms and warming temperatures. Big upper level ridges such as this are consistent with La Nina, and have been a recurring theme this Fall and Winter. Much of our rainfall and cold weather this season has occurred when an extended Pacific jet collapses or contracts, and a blocking ridge shifts west, opening the door to cold storms plunging down the backside of the ridge from the north.

Over the next 1-2 weeks, this is expected to happen again, but this time there is a wildcard in the mix. One of the reasons the Pacific jet is so strong is the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is present in the Western Pacific. As described in this Climate Prediction Center document, this scenario sometimes leads to a heavy West Coast precipitation event.

It’s too far out for the medium range models to be of much help in assessing the likelihood of such an event developing. At the moment, about the only thing that can be said with some certainty is that a pattern change is in the works, and by the end of January there is a chance of some rain in California and the West. We’ll see!

Related post: Southern California 2008-2009 Winter Precipitation Outlook, Snow on Oat Mountain

Chumash Clouds

Sunset view of Simi Valley, with Boney Mountain and Conejo Mountain in the distance.

Clouds moving onshore ahead of a low pressure system that is expected to produce rain in Southern California Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Track of the low is now projected to be a little more to the west, so the heaviest rain may occur just offshore.

From an out and back run yesterday to “fossil point” via the Chumash Trail and Rocky Peak fire road. View is of Simi Valley, with Boney Mountain and Conejo Mountain in the distance.

Snow on Oat Mountain

Snow on Oat Mountain. December 18, 2008.
Snow on Oat Mountain – December 18, 2008.

Our latest storm added another half-inch of rain to our water year total in Los Angeles. This brings the water year rainfall total to 2.85 inches. This is 1.35 inches above normal for the date. As much as a foot of snow was reported in the Antelope Valley and the snow level dropped to nearly 2000 ft in the foothills and mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

Snow on Rocky Peak fire road.
Snow on Rocky Peak fire road. December 2008

What’s next? Things should stay dry in Southern California until around Monday when a fast-moving front sweeps through the state. Later in the week, sometime around Christmas, the models are suggesting the possibility of a major system impacting California. We’ll see!

The photograph of Oat Mountain was taken this morning on an out and back run on Rocky Peak fire road. The highest stretches of the fire road were covered with an icy layer of snow.

Related post: Chumash Trail Rocks & Snow

Clearing Clouds from Sage Ranch

Clearing clouds, northwest of Los Angeles, following the passage of an upper low storm system that resulted in widespread rainfall in Southern California.

Clearing clouds, northwest of Los Angeles, following the passage of an upper low storm system that resulted in widespread rainfall in Southern California. Several rainfall records for November 26 were broken in Los Angeles County.

Update 12/5/08 P.M. High amplitude flow continues to wreak havoc with forecasts. Our on-again, off-again chance of a shower this weekend might be on again. Original cut-off upper low center is still well offshore, but another low center has developed on the downstream side of high amplitude ridge, and this one is much closer to the Southern California coast. The low appears to be entraining some moisture, and could produce some showers, particularly as the low moves onshore and is absorbed in the main flow. We’ll see!

Update 12/5/08 A.M. No rain is expected in SoCal this weekend… The cut-off upper low set up much further west than suggested by models Tuesday and now is spinning out in the eastern Pacific, nearly halfway to Hawaii. At the moment, it looks like it could be mid-month before our next chance for significant rain.

Update 12/2/08. Computer models have been having a tough time with both the short and medium term forecasts for Southern California. Recent runs have been hinting at the possibility of some rain Saturday or Sunday. This would depend on the strength, position and behavior of an upper low that is forecast to form off the Southern California coast Thursday.

From a run at Sage Ranch Park, near Simi Valley, California.